作者/Author(s): Erica Lonergan and Michael Poznansky 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 02/25/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 網路、中國、駭客 
 

對抗「伏特颱風
  • 「伏特颱風」則是另一種案例，它的攻擊還沒有發生，但對中國來說是有價值的。 
  • 除非發生重大衝突，否則中國不太可能啟動「伏特颱風」來對付美國及其盟友。因此，美國必須首先著重於遏止與中國的戰爭。 
  • 美國同時必須制定嚇阻計畫，以防中國啟動「伏特颱風」。 
  1. 反制力量：「伏特颱風」可針對美國軍事基地和基礎設施發動攻擊，妨礙美軍的調動和作戰行動。如果美國決定介入台海衝突，中國很可能啟動「伏特颱風」，以削弱美軍保衛台灣的能力。因此，美國應重點提升網路基礎設施的韌性，識別並移除已發現的惡意軟體，並確保具備可替代的作戰能力。 
  2. 打擊社會：中國可能透過網路攻擊美國的民用基礎設施，以破壞美國社會、經濟及政治穩定，從而向美國決策者施加壓力。然而，中國不太可能發動此類攻擊，因為美國可能以類似的方式進行報復。因此，美國應明確傳達其意圖，即如果中國對民用設施發動攻擊，美國將進行對等報復，以此來威懾中國。 
與其將這些網路威脅視為同一種東西，決策者應理解它們的不同特性，並制定針對性的應對措施。「鹽颱風」屬於情報行動範疇，應以情報作戰與情報戰略進行反制。「伏特颱風」則更具破壞性，是中國用來獲取軍事與戰略優勢的工具。美國可以透過防止戰爭爆發或確保更有力的報復能力來降低中國使用 「伏特颱風」 的可能性。 

Summary: 
Countering Volt Typhoon 
  • Volt Typhoon presents a different case because its attack has not occurred but is valuable for China. 
  • China is unlikely to activate the Volt Typhoon against the US and its allies unless there is a major conflict. Therefore, the US must first focus on deterring war with China. 
  • The US must also prepare a deterrence plan if China activates the Volt Typhoon. 
  1. Counterforce: Activation of the Volt Typhoon against the US military bases and infrastructure to hinder mobilization and operations. China will likely activate the Volt Typhoon if the US decides to intervene in Taiwan to impede the US's effort to defend Taiwan. Therefore, the US should focus on improving the resilience of its network infrastructure, identifying and removing any detected malware, and ensuring it has alternative capabilities. 
  2. Countervalue: Cyber operations against civilian infrastructure aiming to destabilize US society, economy, and politics, thereby pressuring US policymakers. China will unlikely activate countervalue attacks because the US may retaliate against it similarly. Therefore, the US should first signal its intent to use countervalue retaliation to deter China from using it. 
Instead of classifying the cyber threats together, policymakers will benefit from understanding their distinctions and devising individual countermeasures. Salt Typhoon belongs in intelligence operations and should be countered through intelligence operations and intelligence strategies. Volt Typhoon is more destructive and is a tool for China to attain a military and strategic advantage. However, the US could discourage its use by preventing a war with China or ensuring a more substantial retaliation. 
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