作者/Author(s): Sanjay G. Reddy 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 02/21/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、懲罰、川普 


摘要：
川普曾以懲罰性關稅威脅多個國家，以推動其政策目標。然而，他的施壓戰術是否真正奏效，仍有待驗證。
  •  要使用施壓（bullying）戰術，施壓者必須擁有明確的目標，並確保目標國家會服從其要求。
  1. 特朗普對哥倫比亞、加拿大和墨西哥的關稅威脅在一定程度上達成了預期效果，哥倫比亞同意接受被美國遣返的公民；加拿大和墨西哥同意加強邊境管控。 
  2. 川普威脅退出跨大西洋安全承諾，鼓勵美國的北約盟友增加國防支出。
  • 欺凌有其好處和代價。它只有在確實執行威脅或對方相信這些威脅舉動時才會奏效。而且對使用者而言，行使欺凌的淨成本很小。然而，這種策略也有侷限性。
  1. ​​​​​​​受欺凌者會減少對欺凌者的依賴，試圖脫離欺凌者。他們甚至可能組成聯盟或尋求其他保護者。因此，這會降低欺凌者有效利用相同工具的能力。 
  2. 有些政策目標透過互信與合作實現的效率，會比依靠威脅來得更好。因此，施壓無法適用於所有目標，甚至可能削弱達成某些關鍵目標的能力。 
  3. 針對特定領域的威脅可能會在另一個領域產生順從，但它的作用有限。如果受壓國能夠緩解威脅影響，或認為威脅不合理，它可能選擇不服從。 
  4. 極端威脅必須在極端情況下才可信。當威脅的成本過高或風險過大時，施壓者通常會選擇停止執行該威脅。施壓策略通常只對較小國家有效，而無法用於對抗大型經濟體或國際聯盟。 
  • 川普的施壓更像是一種短期戰術，而非長期戰略。美國無法僅依靠威脅來輕易實現其長期政策目標。 
Summary: 
Trump had threatened several countries with punitive tariffs to advance his policy goals. However, whether his bullying tactic could work is yet to be known. 
  • To use bullying as a tactic, a bully must have specific goals and ensure the target will comply with its objectives. 
  1. Trump's tariff threats against Colombia, Canada, and Mexico worked because Colombia agreed to accept its deported citizens while Canada and Mexico agreed to ramp up border controls. 
  2. Trump's threat of withdrawing from transatlantic security commitment encouraged US NATO allies to increase their defense spending.  
  • Bullying has its benefits and costs. It will only work if the threat is followed through or credible and the net cost of exercising bullying is small for the user. However, this tactic has its limitations. 
  1. The bullied ones will try to break away from the bully by reducing dependence on the bully. They may even form a coalition or seek other protectors. Consequently, it will reduce the bully's ability to utilize the same tool effectively. 
  2. Mutual trust and cooperation could better achieve some goals. Consequently, bullying cannot advance all goals and may reduce the capacity to achieve specific aims.  
  3. Threats in one area may generate compliance in another realm, but it will only work up to a specific limit. The target may not comply with the bully if it could mitigate the threat or if the threat is unreasonable. 
  4. An extreme threat necessitates an extreme situation for it to be credible. A bully usually stops exercising its threat if it is unprofitable or causes drastic retaliation. Furthermore, bullying only works against smaller countries, not against large entities or blocs. 
  • Trump's bullying is more a tactic than a strategy. Therefore, the US could not attain its long-term goals easily through bullying. 
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