作者/Author(s): Luis Simon and Toshi Yoshihara 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 01/08/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、歐洲、台灣 

摘要：

許多觀察人士預測，如果兩岸發生軍事衝突，歐洲將因軍事能力有限，只能專注於應對俄羅斯在歐洲的威脅，讓美國獨自承擔對抗中國的重任。然而，該文作者相信，如果兩岸危機擴大到其他海域，且衝突激烈程度過高，歐洲將會介入。如果是這樣，歐洲國家可以提供相關能力，尤其是潛艦，協助防衛台灣。 
辯論

  • 許多兵棋推演模擬了中國入侵台灣的可能場景，但對於此突發事件對歐洲的影響或可能扮演的角色，研究較少。 
  • 歐洲的角色主要侷限於北約的回應、外交行動、經濟制裁或軍事援助的前景與挑戰。 
  • 以下是歐洲在台灣安全上角色受限的主要因素與原因：  
  1. 歐洲國家對台灣議題的態度存在分歧，多數國家不願冒險因保衛台灣而激怒中國。 
  2. 歐洲的軍事資源有限，若台海衝突真的發生，歐洲將優先鞏固其東部防線，讓美國能專注應對印太地區突發事件。 
  3. 俄羅斯對歐洲的威脅比中國的威脅更大。 
  • 歐洲將利用經濟脅迫影響北京的決策。然而，若台海衝突蔓延至其他地區，歐洲可能重新評估其立場。 
歐洲介入的條件  
  • 戰略背景：若台海衝突演變為多戰場或全球戰爭，且俄羅斯協助中國作戰，歐洲更可能介入。 
  • 衝突時長：如果台灣能夠堅持長期對抗中共，歐洲可能會協助台灣防禦。 
  • 美國介入的角色： 美國是直接介入兩岸關係，還是僅提供間接援助。 
  • 地理範圍： 戰爭是否蔓延至第一、第二島鏈或其他海域。 
  • 戰爭爆發的時間： 如果歐洲的軍費持續增加，他們就有資源援助台灣。然而，歐洲可能需要十年左右的時間恢復，至少 2027 年不可能做到。 
Summary: 
Many observers predict Europe will sit on the sidelines if a cross-strait military conflict happens due to a lack of military capabilities and focus on the Russian threat in Europe, letting the U.S. shoulder the burden of countering China. However, the authors believe Europe will intervene if the cross-strait crisis expands to other seas and the conflict intensity is high. If so, European countries could provide relevant capabilities, especially nuclear submarines, to help defend Taiwan.
The Debate 
  • Many wargames were played on the possible scenarios of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but less study was done on the implications of the contingency for Europe or Europe's potential role. 
  • Europe's role was limited to the prospect and challenges of NATO response, diplomatic engagements, economic sanctions, or military assistance. 
  • The following factors explain Europe's restricted role in Taiwan's security: 
  1. European countries are divisive over the Taiwan issue, and most do not want to risk infuriating China for defending Taiwan. 
  2. Europe's military resources are scarce. In the case of a Taiwan contingency, they will focus on shoring up their Eastern fronts to allow the U.S. to focus on the Indo-Pacific. 
  3. Russia poses a more significant threat than China to Europe. 
  • Europe will use economic coercion to influence Beijing's calculation. However, if the Taiwan conflict spills over into other parts of the world, Europe may reconsider its stance. 
The Conditions for a European Intervention 
  • Strategic context: Europe will likely intervene if a Taiwan conflict evolves into a multi-theater or global war and if Russia assists China in the conflict. 
  • Conflict length: If Taiwan could endure for a long time, Europe may assist Taiwan's defense. 
  • Nature of the U.S. involvement: Whether the U.S. role in the Taiwan conflict is direct or merely providing indirect assistance. 
  • Geographic scope: Whether the war spreads across first and second island chains and other oceans. 
  • When the war breaks out: If Europe's military spending continues to increase, it will have the resources to assist Taiwan. However, it may take around one decade, not by 2027. 
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