作者/Author(s): Agathe Demarais 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 01/21/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 制裁、經濟、俄羅斯 


摘要：
雖然西方持續祭出制裁俄羅斯的手段，但仍有約800家西方跨國企業在俄羅斯運作中，這些行為並不違法，但在道德與經濟層面恐站不住腳。這些企業在俄羅斯繳納企業稅，間接資助了普丁的戰爭，但他們無法將利潤匯回母國，也不再擁有俄羅斯資產的完全控制權。 
  • 自俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來，僅約40%的西方跨國企業退出，其中德國、美國、法國許多企業仍留在俄羅斯境內運作。 
  • 這些企業聲稱繼續留在俄羅斯是出於人道主義考量（如生產糧食等關鍵物資）或對當地員工及其家人的責任，但這些理由並不具有說服力： 
  1. 俄羅斯的糧食能夠自給自足，也是主要的糧食出口國。此外，西方制裁並沒有針對人道商品。 
  2. 俄羅斯勞動力短缺，失業率極低，勞動市場選擇很多。 
  • 這些西方企業通過留在俄羅斯，為莫斯科的戰爭機器提供了財政支援。自戰爭爆發以來，這些企業在俄羅斯的獲利早已超過俄羅斯的軍事預算，並向俄羅斯政府繳納了高達160億美元的稅金。 
  1. 這些金額讓俄羅斯可以從伊朗採購超過數千枚飛彈，並進口至少 30 萬架無人機。 
  2. 這筆金額相當於德國自戰爭開始以來提供給烏克蘭的全部財政援助。 
  • 此外，這些在俄企業也成為克里姆林宮的重要宣傳工具，莫斯科得以向外界傳達俄羅斯市場價值過於重要，西方企業不願放棄的訊號。 
  • 經濟因素儼然成為跨國公司決定留下或離開俄羅斯的關鍵因素。留下的公司也許是非常重視俄羅斯利益，或者是無法出售在俄資產，最終選擇留下。 
  • 有些西方公司在賭戰爭結束後，他們的表現能超越競爭對手，但這種說法已經失敗了，因為俄羅斯政府現在控制了他們的收入與資產。 
  1. 不管該企業的母國是敵對或友好國家，俄羅斯政府現在統一限制，不準企業將利潤匯回母國。隨著俄羅斯經濟前景不明，克里姆林宮可能進一步實施全面資本管制。 
  2. 西方企業只能在獲得克里姆林宮或普丁本人批准的情況下出售其資產。 
  3. 部分西方企業的資產已被俄羅斯政府國有化，資產價值大幅縮水。 
  4. 未來，這些企業可能面臨更多限制，例如持續減少資產價值，或被要求向俄羅斯財政部自願繳納「特別貢獻」。 
Despite sanctions, around 800 Western multinational companies still operate in Russia. Although it is not illegal, their moral and economic rationale may be wrong. These firms continue to finance Putin's war through Russian corporate taxes, but they cannot return their profits from Russia back to their home country and no longer have full ownership of their assets in Russia. 
  • Russia only lost around 40% of Western transnational companies since it invaded Russia, with Germany, the U.S., and France companies maintaining the most presence. 
  • Those companies cited humanitarian reasons (producing critical goods like food) or responsibility towards their colleagues and families for staying in Russia, but these reasons are not convincing: 
  1. Russia is self-sufficient in food and a major exporter of it. Furthermore, Western sanctions do not target humanitarian goods. 
  2. Russia has a colossal labor shortage, low unemployment, and many job alternatives. 
  • These Western firms financed Moscow's war in Ukraine by staying in Russia. Since the war began, these firms have generated profits that are more than Russia's military budget and have paid an estimated $16 billion in taxes to the Russian government. 
  1. The figures allow Russia to procure more than thousands of missiles and import at least 300 thousand drones from Iran. 
  2. The amount is similar to Germany's entire financial aid to Ukraine from the beginning of the war. 
  • The presence of Western firms in Russia also gives Moscow substantial propaganda value, hinting its market is too valuable for Western firms to relinquish. 
  • Economic factors have driven transnational companies' decisions to stay or leave Russia. Those who remained prioritized revenues from Russia over moral values or faced difficulties selling their assets. 
  • Some Western firms also bet they could outperform their competitors once the war ended, but the gambit failed as the Russian government now controls their revenues and assets. 
  1. Kremlin limited dividend transfer back to headquarters, regardless of hostile or friendly countries. It may impose comprehensive capital control after seeing worrying signs in its economy. 
  2. Western companies could only sell their assets with the Kremlin's approval or from Putin himself. 
  3. Some Western firms lost their assets' value after the Kremlin nationalized some of their assets. 
  4. These firms may face more restrictions that reduce their assets' value and requirements for a voluntary contribution to the Russian treasury. 
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