作者/Author(s): Theresa Sabonis-Helf 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 02/03/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 能源、烏克蘭、俄羅斯
 

烏克蘭的能源安全選擇 
  • 國際與烏克蘭能源專家一致認為，烏克蘭避免電網崩潰的最佳方式是將防空系統集中於保護關鍵變電站。此外，烏克蘭還必須加強能源基礎設施的網路安全。 
  • 自戰爭爆發以來，烏克蘭的防空能力已大為改善，但彈藥庫存已不多。此外，烏克蘭在保護電力系統方面的優先程度尚不得而知。雖然烏克蘭的防空系統在阻止俄羅斯取得制空權方面表現卓越，但可能無法阻止俄國對其能源基礎設施的針對性攻擊。 
  • 烏克蘭在快速修復能源基礎設施和維持能源韌性方面表現出色。然而，若無法有效保護電網，這些作為仍不足以確保能源安全。 
  • 如果烏克蘭能夠撐過冬天，其前景將會更加樂觀。國際原子能機構（IAEA）建議建立分散式電力系統並發展可再生能源，以提升烏克蘭電網的韌性。 
  1. 分散式能源資源系統較不易被攻擊，烏克蘭也能將電力系統部署於需求中心附近。
  2. 如果能獲得足夠的投資，烏克蘭就可以快速部署該系統。 
  • 烏克蘭也可以提高能源進口，但卻面臨現行合約限制、基礎設施不相容、跨界輸電線路遭襲擊，以及財務困難等問題。 
最壞的情況 
  • 如果烏克蘭無法確保供電安全，其他重要基礎設施也將面臨癱瘓。  
  • 由於烏克蘭以城市都會區為主，意味著大量人口會從烏克蘭流離到其他歐洲國家，助長難民危機。 
  • 電網崩潰進一步凸顯了能源在戰爭中的關鍵作用。一旦烏克蘭的能源資源被消耗完，消耗戰將走向終結，迎向俄羅斯的勝利。
 
Ukraine's Energy Security Options 
  • International and Ukrainian energy experts agreed that the best way for Ukraine to avoid the collapse of its electricity grid is to concentrate its air defense on protecting critical substations. Furthermore, Ukraine must also boost the cyber security of its energy infrastructure. 
  • Ukraine's air defense has improved greatly since the war began, but its ammunition is running low. Furthermore, the extent of Ukraine's priority in protecting its electricity sector is unknown. Although Ukraine's air defense showed great results in stopping Russia from controlling the air, it may not prevent a targeted attack on its energy infrastructure. 
  • Ukraine also excelled at conducting rapid repairs to its energy infrastructure and ensuring energy resilience. Yet, without defenses for the electricity grid, these efforts are insufficient. 
  • If Ukraine can survive the winter, its prospects will be bright. The IAEA recommended a decentralized electricity system and renewable energy sources to improve Ukraine's grid resilience. 
  1. Distributed energy resource systems are more challenging to target while allowing the system to be placed near demand centers. 
  2. Ukraine could quickly deploy the system if it could secure sufficient investments. 
  • Ukraine could also increase energy imports but faces restrictions from current contracts, incompatible infrastructure, attacks on transboundary transmission lines, and insolvency issues. 
The Worst Case Scenario 
  • If Ukraine fails to ensure the safety of its electricity supply, other critical infrastructure will also be unusable.  
  • Since Ukraine is primarily urban, it also means a large population displacement away from Ukraine to other European countries, fueling refugee crises. 
  • The collapse of the grid also solidified energy's role in the war. The war of attrition will end once Ukraine depletes its electricity resources, handing Russia victory. 
 
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