作者/Author(s): Philip Luck 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategy and International Affairs 

日期/Date: 02/04/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟國策、關稅、美國


摘要：
川普政府根據1977年《國際緊急經濟權力法》（IEEPA）對美國前三大貿易夥伴——墨西哥、加拿大和中國的商品徵收關稅。在墨西哥與加拿大領導人承諾加強邊境管控並打擊毒品走私後，川普暫停了對兩國的關稅手段，但對中國的關稅仍然有效。本文並非討論關稅對美國經濟的影響，而是聚焦於經濟國家實力（economic statecraft）的運用方式，特別是它如何惡化了經濟工具維護國家安全的能力。 
  • IEEPA 允許美國總統對美國經濟或國家安全構成「異常且重大威脅」的外部挑戰進行貿易管制。該法案允許總統運用經濟制裁作為實現美國外交政策目標的手段。 
  • 然而，為了改變目標國的行為，美國必須提供對等的誘因，、維持自身經濟制裁的有效性，以及防止其他政府發展自身經濟脅迫的能力。這些能力取決於美國對強大經濟體制、經濟互賴以及政治與經濟體系可信度的堅定承諾。 
  • 當一個國家不斷遭受美國的經濟脅迫，最終會發展出抵禦制裁的能力。各國可以降低對美國市場的依賴來抵抗制裁，減少經濟脆弱性。 
  • 川普普政府承認各國可能會發展出有效規避制裁的方法，因為他也威脅要對試圖去美元化的國家徵收關稅。然而，對盟友和敵人過度使用經濟脅迫，會使人懷疑美國作為合作夥伴的可靠性，轉而尋求替代方案。 
  • 此外，對盟友的經濟施壓也將加劇美國自身的經濟脆弱性。川普對擁有大量重要礦產儲備的墨西哥和加拿大的關稅威脅，只會提高美國礦產價格，美國減少對中國依賴的動力也下降，這將危及美國應對中國大陸威脅的韌性。 
  • 頻繁使用經濟施壓手段，將導致美國在國際社會的可信度下降，進而削弱其經濟制裁的有效性。 
Summary: 
Trump had imposed tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese goods, the top three largest U.S. trade partners, under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Trump suspended the tariffs on Mexico and Canada after the leaders promised to enhance border controls and combat drug trafficking, but the tariffs on China are still in place. Instead of discussing the economic implications of tariffs on the U.S. economy, the author sheds some light on the ramifications of the use of economic statecraft itself, especially how it deteriorates the ability to use economic instruments for its national security. 
  • The IEEPA allows the U.S. president to regulate trade in response to external "unusual and extraordinary threats" to the U.S. economic or national security. It gives the president the power to conduct coercive economic statecraft to pursue foreign policy aims. 
  •  However, to alter targets' behavior, the U.S. must provide reciprocal inducements to incentivize cooperation, maintain its ability to coerce others, and deny other governments from using economic coercion. These abilities require a strong commitment to policies that promote a strong economy, economic interdependence, and the credibility of its political and economic systems. 
  • Countries will develop resistance once they suffer from constant economic coercion. Governments could resist by reducing their exposure to the U.S. market.  
  • The Trump administration acknowledges the possibility of sanctions immunity because it also threatened tariffs on countries attempting to de-dollarize. Yet, the overuse of economic statecraft against allies and foes alike doubts the U.S.'s reliability as a partner, pushing them to seek alternatives. 
  • Furthermore, coercing its allies will only exacerbate the U.S.'s economic vulnerabilities. Trump's tariff threat to Mexico and Canada, which had vast critical mineral reserves, only increased the price of minerals in the U.S. and reduced the motivation to diversify away from Chinese sources. Therefore, it will endanger the U.S.'s economic resilience to the PRC's coercion. 
  • The repeated use of economic coercion erodes the U.S.'s credibility abroad, weakening the effectiveness of its economic statecraft. 
 
 
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