作者/Author(s): Theresa Sabonis-Helf 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 02/03/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 能源、烏克蘭、俄羅斯 


摘要：
俄羅斯持續攻擊烏克蘭關鍵能源基礎設施，導致烏克蘭能源電網不穩，烏國核電廠變得不安全。如果國際原子能總署認為烏克蘭核電廠運營風險過高，可能會強迫烏克蘭暫停核電廠的運作。烏克蘭捍衛自家能源網變電站對其生存至關重要。 

烏克蘭的能源現狀
  • 在俄羅斯入侵前，烏克蘭是歐洲的能源出口國。如今，它需要從鄰國進口能源，但由於現有協議的限制，進口的能源仍然不足。 
  • 俄羅斯攻擊烏克蘭電網的行動，導致烏國能源需求問題更加嚴重。
  1. ​​​​​​​俄羅斯攻擊烏克蘭的火力和水力發電廠，並阻礙維修工作。 
  2. 俄羅斯並沒有攻擊核子設施，因為它擔心會有可怕的後果。因此，烏克蘭目前的能源供應仰賴其 9 座核電廠。 
  3. 俄羅斯只需攻擊整合電力來源的變電站，就能進一步削弱烏克蘭的電力網，並使核設施處於不穩定狀態。核電廠需要外部的非核電力來源才能安全運行。（更多詳情可參考HBO劇集《核爆家園》第五集） 
  4. 烏克蘭的變電站極易受到俄羅斯空襲的威脅。為確保電網在遭襲後仍能正常運行，烏克蘭必須降低核電廠的輸出功率。 
  • 俄羅斯的常見作法是攻擊核電廠周邊變電站，迫使核電廠停止運作。 
  1. 2022年，俄羅斯也曾採取類似手段迫使札波羅熱（Zaporizhzhia）核電廠停止運作。 
  2. 這些攻擊破壞了烏克蘭電力體系的穩定，並促使 國際原子能總署介 入。 
  3. 國際原子能總署擔心風險上升，建議烏克蘭關閉設施，俄羅斯隨後便接管了核電廠設施。 
  4. 札波羅熱襲擊事件給俄羅斯上了一課，讓其了解國際原子能總署對於核設施威脅增加時的反應，尤其是國際原子能總署在俄烏衝突後協助烏克蘭管理核電廠的角色。因此，俄羅斯可能會利用國際原子能總署A的機制來迫使烏克蘭關閉其他核電廠。 
 
 Summary: 
Russian repeated attacks on key energy infrastructure destabilize Ukraine's energy grid, which may render its nuclear power plants unsafe. Consequently, Ukraine may suspend the operations of its nuclear plants if the IAEA deems the risks of operations unsustainable. Therefore, defending Ukraine's energy grid substations is critical to its survival. 
Ukraine's Energy Outlook 
  • Before the invasion, Ukraine was an energy exporter to Europe. It now requires energy imports from neighboring countries, but these are still inadequate due to limitations in current agreements. 
  • Russian attacks on Ukraine's power grid exacerbate its energy demand problems. 
  1. Russia attacked Ukraine's thermal and hydropower plants and impeded efforts to repair them. 
  2. Russia did not attack nuclear facilities because it worried about the dire consequences. Therefore, Ukraine's current energy supply relies on its nine nuclear plants. 
  3. Russia only needs to strike the substations that integrate power sources to deteriorate Ukraine's electricity grid and render its nuclear facilities unsafe. Nuclear power plants require external non-nuclear power sources to operate safely. (For more information, watch the fifth episode of HBO's Chernobyl) 
  4. Ukraine's substations are vulnerable to Russian air strikes. To ensure the safety of the electricity grid after attacks, Ukraine must reduce the output of its nuclear plant. 
  • Russia's common strategy is to force the stop of nuclear plant operations by attacking nearby substations.  
  1. In 2022, Russia used similar methods to shut down the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. 
  2. The attacks destabilized Ukraine's electricity grid and prompted the IAEA to intervene. 
  3. Worried about the risks of accidents, the IAEA recommended that Ukraine close the facility, and Russia subsequently took over the facility. 
  4. The Zaporizhzhia attacks gave Russia a lesson in the IAEA's response to an increased threat to nuclear facilities, particularly given the IAEA's role in assisting Ukraine in managing its nuclear power plants since the invasion. Therefore, Russia may use the agency's capacity to shut down Ukraine's remaining nuclear plants. 
 
 
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