作者/Author(s): Benjamin Jensen 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 01/16/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、中國、戰鬥機 


摘要：
中國近期公開了一款新型隱形戰機，可能對現代防空系統構成挑戰，可能導致美國在印太地區的軍力部署變得更複雜，並進一步鞏固「技術將決定美中競逐」的觀點。然而，中國此舉也有可能利用軍事訊號來反制川普的關稅威脅。
  •  國家行為體公開最新軍事能力是避免戰爭升級的一種策略，或作為施壓談判的工具。 
  • 中國可能是想透過公開這款新型戰機來制衡川普威脅，因為中國缺乏其他可信的替代選項。 
  • 此外，此舉可能意在揭露美國戰略的脆弱性，並暗示衝突升級的可能性，進而引發全球危機與武裝衝突。 
  • 鑒於中國國內情勢不好，美國可以在向北京施壓或進行外交接觸之間取得平衡，以降低風險。雖然用經濟施壓對付中國會更有效，但美國需要一個全面的戰略來應對中國。 
  1. 川普政府應制定一項跨機構的綜合計劃，以打擊中國的關鍵弱點。 
  2. 美國需要向防務夥伴與盟友提供更多安全保障，並加強相互操作性，確保在必要時能夠聯合行動。 
  3. 川普團隊也應建立危機管理與外交溝通機制，以降低意外升級的風險。與此同時，美國政府應將危機演練納入其戰略規劃，以瞭解自身作戰弱點並加強防範。 
  4. 川普政府必須確保美國有足夠的嚇阻和防禦措施來遏制中國的新戰略。 
Summary: 
China recently unveiled a new stealth aircraft that could challenge modern air defense systems. This could complicate U.S. force planning in the Indo-Pacific and consolidate the belief that technology will define the U.S.-China competition. However, there is a possibility that China used military signaling to counter Trump's tariff threats. 
  • State actors reveal new military capabilities as a gambit to avoid escalation or as a coercive bargaining tactic. 
  • Unveiling the new aircraft could be a counterweight against Trump's threats because China lacks other credible alternatives. 
  • Furthermore, the move could signal the U.S.'s strategic vulnerability and the start of conflict escalation, which could lead to global crises and armed clashes. 
  • Given China's domestic predicaments, the U.S. could balance pressuring Beijing or engaging in diplomatic engagement to mitigate the risks. While economic pressure will be more effective against China, the U.S. needs a comprehensive strategy to deal with China. 
  1. The Trump administration should devise a comprehensive interagency plan that targets China's critical vulnerabilities. 
  2. The U.S. needs to reassure defense partners and allies while deepening interoperability to ensure they can join forces when necessary. 
  3. The Trump team should also establish crisis management and diplomatic communication mechanisms to mitigate the risks of accidental escalations. At the same time, the administration should include crisis rehearsals in its strategic planning to understand its operational vulnerabilities and improve readiness. 
  4. The Trump administration must ensure the U.S. has sufficient denial and defensive measures to deter China's new strategies. 
 
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