作者/Author(s): Jason Bordoff 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: January 9, 2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 能源、經濟、美國 


摘要：
過去五十年來，俄羅斯透過烏克蘭向歐洲供應天然瓦斯。然而，自烏克蘭從美國進口天然氣後，俄羅斯切斷了對歐洲的天然氣供應。這一事件凸顯了美國天然氣在歐洲能源安全中的關鍵作用。 
  • 自俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來，歐洲一直穩定增加美國天然氣的進口量。然而，川普威脅，如果歐洲不購買更多美國天然氣，將增加對歐洲產品的關稅。此舉可能危及歐洲的能源安全，引發全球能源價格不穩，甚至加劇氣候變化問題。 
  • 歐洲對全球天然氣市場的依賴程度更高，能源價格也將跟著全球市場浮動。 
  1. 隨著寒冷冬季到來，歐洲與美國對天然氣的需求迅速成長。'
  2. 歐洲因缺乏能源替代方案，天然氣儲備快速下降。
  3. 歐洲決心要在 2027 年前脫離對俄羅斯的能源依賴，而俄羅斯自入侵烏克蘭後，已減少向歐洲供氣。 
  4. 此外，歐洲也開始與亞洲的天然氣買家競爭。一些中東國家因不願遵守歐盟的永續規則而限制對歐洲的天然氣出口。 
  • 鑒於上述困境，美國成為歐洲能源的最佳替代選擇。 
  1. 即便有嚴格的環境標準，美國仍願意以可負擔的價格增加對歐洲的天然氣出口。氣候變化的負面影響在這種情況下只能被視為次要問題。 
  2. 美國在天然氣開採與出口方面的能力，也顯示了其作為國際能源市場重要生產者與參與者的可靠性。 
  • 然而，美國國內面臨AI 部門大量能源需求的問題，這可能會推高國內能源價格。雖然川普鼓勵美國天然氣出口，但不確定他是否會優先維持國內低能源價格，再考慮全球出口。 
  • 如果川普政府希望通過天然氣出口主導能源市場，就必須避免讓能源出口成為政治問題，減少美國天然氣行業的碳足跡，並制定其他能源政策以維持國內能源價格的穩定。 
Summary: 
Russia supplied Europe with natural gas via Ukraine for five decades. However, after Ukraine received gas supplies from the U.S., Russia cut off its supplies to Europe. This incident indicates the critical role of American gas in Europe's energy security. 
  • Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe has steadily purchased more gas from the U.S. However, Trump threatened to increase tariffs on European products if it does not buy more U.S. gas. This move could jeopardize Europe's energy security, cause global energy price instability, and exacerbate climate change. 
  • Europe will depend more on the global gas market, and its energy prices will also depend on the trajectory of the worldwide market. 
  1. Due to colder winters, gas demand in Europe and the U.S. soared.
  2. Europe is quickly using up its gas reserves because it lacks energy alternatives. 
  3. Europe is steadfast in decoupling its energy dependence from Russia by 2027, while Russia has cut its supplies to Europe since invading Ukraine. 
  4. Europe is also competing with other gas buyers in Asia. Some Middle Eastern countries capped their gas exports to Europe because they refuse to comply with the EU's sustainability rules. 
  • Given the predicaments, the U.S. is the best alternative for Europe's energy. 
  1. Even with rigid environmental standards, the U.S. is eager to increase gas exports to Europe at an affordable price. Furthermore, the negative impacts of climate change are inconsequential. 
  2. The U.S.'s ability to extract and export gas also indicated its reliability as a producer and participant in the international energy market. 
  • However, the U.S. faces increased domestic demand to power its AI sector, which may increase domestic energy prices. Although Trump encourages U.S. gas exports, it is uncertain whether he will focus on maintaining low gas prices in the U.S. first before selling gas worldwide. 
  • If the Trump administration wishes to dominate the energy market through gas exports, it must resist politicizing energy exports, reduce the U.S. gas industry's carbon footprint, and develop other energy policies to keep domestic energy prices low. 
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