作者/Author(s): Viking Bohman, Audrye Wong, and Victor Ferguson 

網站來源/Source: Swedish National China Centre, American Enterprise Institute 

日期/Date: 06/18/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、制裁、貿易戰


摘要：
中國的貿易戰賭局
  • 日內瓦協議的整體結果對北京有利，因為美國將其關稅升級回縮至30%。中國也因此在未來與美國的談判中取得平等的地位，展現了自己有能力且願意抵抗美國威脅的形象。 
  • 川普政府妥協的主要原因是他低估了關稅戰所帶來的市場影響以及中國的強硬姿態。 
  • 日內瓦協議包含中國承諾暫停所有關稅與非關稅措施。然而，中國對於非關稅措施（尤其是出口管制）的內容保有模糊性，讓自己可以保有對美或其他國家銷售稀土的彈性。 
  • 中國同意為期六個月的稀土和磁鐵對美出口的許可證，這讓中國在未來出現緊張局勢時握有可談判的籌碼。此項出口管制揭示了美國在關鍵領域的脆弱性，也展現了中國在貿易戰中調整執行的能力。
歐洲的新問題 
  • 中國在將出口作為武器的過程中表現謹慎，以避免遭到目標國的強烈報復，也避免傷害其長期市場地位與政治影響力。然而，在本輪貿易戰中，中國更加明確地限制出口。 
  • 中國的出口管制也影響到歐洲。一些製造商因管制而產生供應積壓，但這可能只是暫時的，因為中國很想要修補與歐洲的關係。但不管如何，中國已展現它可將供應鏈武器化的能力，並可能利用此手段來影響跨大西洋關係。 
  • 供應鏈中斷的問題，迫使歐盟加快多元化進度，但他們仍還沒降低對中國的依賴。因此，歐盟應為中國更頻繁使用出口管制的可能性做準備，並在事件發生前建立反制機制。 
  • 歐盟的一大優勢在於中國正積極避免與多個國家同時爆發貿易戰，並已在部分爭端上與歐洲達成和解。中國也放寬對歐盟企業的出口限制，同時將美國企業排除在外。 
 
Summary: 
China's Trade War Gambit 
  • The Geneva deal's overall outcome was favorable to Beijing, as the U.S. rolled back its tariff escalation to 30%. China also gained equal footing in future negotiations with the U.S. and presented itself as capable and willing to resist U.S. threats. 
  • The Trump administration compromised primarily because it underestimated the market fallout from its tariff war and China's assertive posture toward the U.S. 
  • The Geneva agreement included a Chinese commitment to pause all tariff and non-tariff measures. However, China retained ambiguity in the context of non-tariff measures, particularly export controls, giving it flexibility over the sales of rare earth to the U.S. or other countries. 
  • China agreed to a six-month lease for a license for rare earth and magnet exports to the U.S., which will give it leverage if tensions rise again. The export controls exposed the U.S.'s critical vulnerability and China's ability to tailor its enforcement in the trade war. 
Europe's new problem 
  • China was careful when weaponizing exports to prevent strong retaliation from target countries and damage to its long-term market position and political leverage. However, China became more explicit about limiting exports during this round of trade war. 
  • China's export control affects Europe, too. Some manufacturers suffered from backlogs due to the export control, but it is likely temporary because China is keen to mend its ties with Europe. Nevertheless, China has demonstrated its ability to weaponize the supply chain and may use it to influence transatlantic relations. 
  • The supply chain disruption compels the EU to hasten its diversification efforts, but it is still far from decreasing its dependence on China. Therefore, the EU should brace itself against the possibility of China's frequent use of export controls and prepare counter-coercion instruments before it happens. 
  • One optimism for the EU is that China is keen to avoid a trade war on multiple fronts and has made peace with the bloc on some disputes. China also relaxed export restrictions for EU companies while excluding U.S. ones. 
 
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