作者/Author(s): Viking Bohman, Audrye Wong, and Victor Ferguson 

網站來源/Source: Swedish National China Centre, American Enterprise Institute 

日期/Date: 06/18/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、制裁、貿易戰


摘要：
與第一次美中貿易戰不同，美國這次迅速讓步並尋求與中國談判，可能是因為中國採用了更廣泛且更正式的經濟報復措施。 

不斷升級 
  • 2018年，北京政府以美國關稅升級的對等方式進行反制，這與今年的情況十分相似。中國堅稱不願發動貿易戰，但若美國升高關稅戰的強度，中國將堅決報復。 
  • 雖然今年中國經濟成長停滯不前，出口導向型的經濟成長模式舉步維艱，但中國仍然下了升級關稅戰的賭注。中國不僅對美方的關稅升級做出對等回應，還使用了一系列非關稅手段。這顯示中國在面對美國經濟脅迫時風險承受能力提高，運用經濟國策的方式也更加成熟。 
中國的正式與非正式經濟武器 
  • 中國長期以來一直批評美國利用經濟霸權干涉他國內政。中國過去大多只使用非正式方式進行經濟報復，例如煽動抵制、延遲或禁止進口產品通關，以及引用國內相關法規限制外國企業，同時否認政府有直接介入的行為。 
  • 但是中國領導人認為非正式措施已經不夠，因此自 2020 年以後，北京公開承認以法律形式實施對美國的經濟限制措施。自2023年起，正式制裁的使用已超過非正式手段。 
  • 在現今貿易戰中，中國將正式與非正式的工具混合使用，主要針對與中國市場連結較少的企業。中國對稀土的出口管制具有強大威脅力，因為稀土由中國主導，且對國防與高科技產業至關重要。 
  • 中國實施經濟報復採取「兩步走」的方式，先建立作為升級依據的法律措施，待緊張升高或處於戰略有利地位時，再正式實施。中國亦可根據需要，進行調整、延續或終止這些措施。 
 
Summary: 
Unlike the first U.S.-China trade war, the U.S. blinked quickly and sought negotiation with China, probably because China used broader and more formalized retaliatory economic measures. 

Escalation Ladder 
  • In 2018, the Beijing government matched the U.S. tariff escalation, similar to that in 2025. China insisted it did not want a trade war but was determined to retaliate if the U.S. intensified the tariff war. 
  • This time, China gambled by escalating the tariff war despite facing stagnating economic growth and difficulties in its export-driven growth mode. China not only matched the U.S.'s tariff escalation, it also used a wide range of non-tariff measures. These signaled China's growing risk tolerance against U.S. economic coercion and maturing use of economic statecraft. 
China's formal and informal economic weapons 
  • China has long criticized the U.S. for using economic hegemony to meddle in other countries' domestic affairs. Previously, China only used informal methods such as fanning boycotts, slowing or banning imports' entry, and invoking relevant domestic regulations against foreign enterprises, but it denied direct government involvement. 
  • In recent years, Chinese leaders have believed informal measures are insufficient. Since 2020, Beijing has publicly acknowledged and legally imposed economic restrictions primarily against the U.S. and China. The use of formal sanctions has overtaken informal ones since 2023. 
  • In the current trade war, China uses a mix of formal and informal tools, targeting enterprises with limited connections to substantial presence in the Chinese market. Its export controls on rare earths, primarily dominated by China and critical to the defense and high-technology sector, are the most potent against U.S. companies. 
  • China notably implemented its economic retaliation in a "two-step" method: establishing legal measures that serve as a basis for escalation and imposing them when tensions rose or it was in a strategic advantageous position. It could also calibrate, continue, or stop the measures freely. 
 
回上層