走鋼索的台灣 (Part 2)

美國有許多專家將「嚇阻」與對中強硬劃上等號，但這無助於實質提升台灣的安全。美國應低調加強軍事部署，在外交上保持謹慎，並維持美中經濟互賴與韌性間的平衡。 

From Trade War to Shooting War 

• Deterrence and assurances in the military and diplomatic aspects are relatively feasible compared to economic pressure. Furthermore, economic coercion can undermine deterrence and reassurance efforts. 
• Previous U.S. administrations have pursued economic and technological containment against China, even decoupling from China-related supply chains. 
• The second Trump administration hastened economic decoupling from China, hoping to slow down China's economic and military growth. However, the U.S. paused its economic tariffs after suffering financial pains, which forced the administration to negotiate with Beijing. 
• Beijing will view the U.S. economic and technological containment or decoupling as an indication of a failure of peaceful coexistence. Consequently, Beijing will mistrust the U.S. more and challenge it as the defender of global trade. It will also hasten China's pursuit of economic and technological self-sufficiency. 
• The U.S. trade war strategy could not hamper China's long-term military growth because China modernized the PLA at historically low costs and balanced it with economic development. Furthermore, it will risk escalating the trade war into a military conflict if China perceives the latter as more appealing. 
• Only adequate reassurances from the U.S. could increase China's will to maintain the status quo. Therefore, the U.S. should reverse or stop economic decoupling from China. Maintaining economic interdependence and coordinating sanction measures with allies will also give the U.S. more leverage when sanctioning China in case of a Taiwan contingency. 
• However, to reduce its reliance on China to an acceptable level, the U.S. should limit its reliance on critical Chinese imports and diversify its import sources.