作者/Author(s): Bonny Lin, John Culver, and Brian Hart 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 05/15/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 兩岸事務、台灣海峽、戰爭 


摘要：
變數很大 
  • 中共日益加劇的侵略行為引起了美國的關切，甚至將解放軍的演習形容為「入侵預演」。 
  • 雖然中共軍事行動明顯增加，但其內部仍有許多人不了解美國在台灣問題上的立場。北京雖篤定美國想要增加與中國的戰略競爭，但也認為華府可能會將台灣視為談判籌碼。 
  • 中國專家普遍認為川普與其團隊在台灣問題上未能達成共識，認為美國不一定會在各種衝突情境中出手保衛台灣。不過，他們也認為有必要透過軍事訊號來阻止美國與台灣持續加深聯繫。 
路線修正 
  • 美國及其盟友絕不能忽視中國對台灣認知的轉變及相關行動，隨著賴清德持續執政，台海局勢恐將進一步惡化。中國相信，若賴清德的選情不利，他可能會在下屆總統大選前加大推動台獨的力度，而這恰好與習近平「2027年建軍百年目標」的時間點相仿。
  • 川普政府必須意識到，北京在台灣問題上的耐性越來越少，決心則隨之加強。因此，美方應清楚表達嚇阻中國敵意的意願，並整合對中與對台政策的各種手段，達到加強嚇阻與減少誤判的目標。 
  • 此舉尤其重要，因為中共曾透過關稅戰測試美國的決心，而當時美方只有在初期選擇強硬，後續則轉向退讓。 
  • 當美國在多個戰略領域快速推進之際，理解中國如何解讀華府的整體戰略與意圖至關重要。若中國誤判美國意圖，川普政府應設法澄清並反制中國的不實說法。 
  • 如果美國真心希望避免台海危機，就必須縮小美、中、台三方間的認知差距。 
 
Summary: 
Wild Card 
  • The increasing Chinese aggression concerns the U.S., which even branded PLA exercises as invasion rehearsals. 
  • Despite the evident Chinese actions, many in China do not know where the U.S. stands on the Taiwan issue. Although Beijing is confident that the U.S. wants to increase competition with China, it also believes the U.S. will use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in the rivalry. 
  • Chinese experts believe Trump and his team do not have a consensus on Taiwan. Therefore, they do not think the U.S. will defend Taiwan from any conflict scenarios. However, they believe military signaling is imperative to stop the U.S. from fostering closer ties to Taiwan. 
Course Correction 
  • The U.S. and its allies must not neglect the change in China's perception of Taiwan and its actions because the Taiwan Strait will likely enter a more dangerous situation as Lai's term continues. China believes Lai will be more radical in promoting Taiwan's independence in the next presidential elections, which coincides with Xi's deadline of military modernization in 2027, if his election campaign does not do well. 
  • The Trump administration must realize Beijing is getting impatient and resolved regarding the Taiwan issue. Therefore, the U.S. must clarify its willingness to counter Chinese hostilities and integrate different statecraft elements towards China and Taiwan to improve deterrence and reduce misperception. 
  • This is particularly important because Beijing tested American resolve through the tariff war, during which the U.S. backed down despite initial audacity. 
  • As the U.S. advances fast on multiple fronts, it is important to understand how China views Washington's grand strategy and intentions. If China misunderstands the U.S., it is important for the Trump administration to correct and retaliate against Chinese narratives. 
  • If the U.S. is genuine in preventing a Taiwan Strait crisis, it must close the perception gap between China, Taiwan, and itself.
 
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