作者/Author(s): Bonny Lin, John Culver, and Brian Hart 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 05/15/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 兩岸事務、台灣海峽、戰爭 


摘要：

中共長期主張和平統一台灣，然而近年來，特別是在更具台獨色彩的賴清德就任總統後，北京對台的軍事壓力不斷升高。美國應密切關注中國對賴的認知，並採取適當措施嚇阻中共的脅迫行動。 

上升螺旋 

  • 中共對台灣的施壓策略不斷升級，甚至指控賴政府在推動台灣社會「軍事化」、抹除台灣人對中國的認同、阻礙兩岸實質交流與合作。 
  • 部分中國學者認為，賴清德的政治基礎相較前任總統較為薄弱，為了鞏固內部支持，他必須採取更積極且更抗中的立場。這種說法導致中共內部鷹派力陳對台採取更強硬措施，甚至鼓吹使用非和平手段或煽動人民反對賴清德政府，以實現統一台灣的目標。 
  • 目前的局勢與前總統陳水扁任期內最緊張的時期頗為類似，甚至可能已逼近北京所設定的紅線。2008年，時任總統陳水扁所屬的民主進步黨提出「入聯公投」時，中共回以重大軍事威脅。然而，該年公投因投票率不足而未過門檻，且提出「返聯公投」的國民黨也贏得總統大選，加上美國派遣航母靠近台海，才免於爆發台海衝突。 
壞兆頭 
  • 自2008年以來，中國的軍事力量已大幅現代化與組織化。 
  • 中國現今的軍事行動更具主動性、不可預測性也更複雜，導致美台雙方更難進行戰略判斷，究竟距離中國動武還剩多少時間？此外，中國已將海警與海上民兵力量納入對台封鎖演習體系。 
  • 自蔡英文上任以後，北京明顯提升使用軍事手段解決台灣問題的意願，對台軍演的規模與頻率也持續升級，藉此對賴政府的內政施加壓力。 
 
Summary: 
China has long upheld Taiwan's peaceful unification. However, in recent years, China has ramped up military pressure on Taiwan, especially since a more pro-independence Lai became Taiwan's president. The U.S. should be concerned about Beijing's perception of Lai and take the appropriate measures to deter China's coercion. 
Escalation Spiral 
  • China had escalated its pressure campaign on Taiwan after accusing Lai of militarizing Taiwanese society, wiping Chinese identity off Taiwan, and hampering meaningful cross-strait exchanges and cooperation. 
  • Many Chinese scholars believe Lai's weak political position compared to his predecessor caused his proactiveness and confrontational approach against China to win public support. Therefore, hawks in China urged a more aggressive approach towards China, suggested using non-peaceful means, or incite insurrection against Lai's administration to unify Taiwan. 
  • The current situation resonates with the most dangerous period during Chen Shui-bian's tenure, which is close to violating Beijing's red lines. Although China followed with significant military threats after Chen proposed a referendum to join the UN under the name of Taiwan in 2008, low voter turnout, the election of KMT's candidate in the presidential race, and the deployment of U.S. aircraft carriers near the Taiwan Strait stopped any bloodshed from happening. 
Bad Omens 
  • Since 2008, China has significantly improved its military capabilities with a more modernized and organized force.
  • China's more proactive, unpredictable, and complex military activities pose a dilemma for the U.S. and Taiwan on how much time they have before China takes over Taiwan using force. China also incorporated its coast guard and maritime militia in blockade drills. 
  • Beijing became more willing to use military force, especially since Tsai's presidency. China also upgraded the scale and increased the frequency of military drills around Taiwan to coerce Lai's administration over its domestic policies.  
 
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