作者/Author(s): Matthew Kroenig 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 05/23/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 防衛、台灣、後備 


摘要：
台灣海峽可能成為第三次世界大戰最有可能爆發的熱點。在面對擁核鄰居中共不斷施加統一壓力的情勢下，台灣近期在自我防衛方面展現出更為積極的態度。川普的 「美國優先 」政策也迫使台灣更積極建設國防。 
  • 台灣在 1990 年左右意識到自己與北京政府之間的力量差距之後，結束了「反攻大陸」的軍事目標。 
  • 美國國防規劃部門過去時常不滿台灣的軍事採購策略，因為台灣傾向購買大型且昂貴的平台，而非不對稱能力的實際需求。另外，台灣曾於2013 年嘗試扶植文職軍事領導人失敗，淡化了中共對台灣使用核武的機率。 
  • 自2016年蔡英文總統上任以來，台灣試圖在國防策略與社會經濟穩定之間取得平衡。然而，這種微妙平衡難以維持，還持續遭受中共假訊息攻擊。 
  • 在賴清德總統領導下，台灣在積極因應中共的威脅。賴政府成功推動國防改革，包括任命文人出任國防部長、採取消耗性防禦的策略，並根據美國國防規劃部門建議，加強投資不對稱作戰能力，振興本土軍工產業。 
  • 台灣亦與美方合作，推動「全社會防衛韌性」戰略，提升電信、能源與緊急系統的韌性，並透過大眾傳播工具向民眾宣導中國攻擊威脅。台灣國防準備的提升，也進而穩定了經濟信心。 
  • 儘管已經很努力，台灣仍有許多進步空間： 
  1. 目前的國防預算水準仍嫌不足，應邁向北約倡導的「國防支出占 GDP 5% 」目標。 
  2. 台灣約有150萬後備軍人，但缺乏足夠的裝備、訓練與後勤支援能力。 
  3. 台灣的能源安全仍是主要隱憂，尤其台灣持續進口能源，且逐步關閉核電機組，供應穩定性不足。 
  • 台灣已展現堅定的自我防衛決心，這可能會鼓勵美國在台海發生衝突時支援台灣。 
Summary: 
The Taiwan Strait may be the most possible flashpoint for the Third-World War. Amid constant unification threat from the nuclear armed neighbor, China, Taiwan recently became more serious in its self-defense. Trump’s “American First” policies also compelled Taiwan’s more proactive approach to self-defense. 
  • The Taiwanese military aspirations of reclaiming Mainland China ended around 1990 after realizing the power gap between itself and the Beijing government. 
  • Previously, U.S. defense planners were often disappointed by previous Taiwan’s military procurement strategy, focusing on large and expensive platforms instead of its actual needs of asymmetric capabilities. Furthermore, Taiwan military attempt to install civilian military leader in 2013 had failed and it also downplayed the odds of China using nuclear arms against the island.  
  • Since 2016, under President Tsai’s leadership, Taiwan tried to balance its defense strategy with social and economic stability. However, the difficulty of attaining a delicate balance and CCP’s misinformation campaign undermined the administration’s efforts. 
  • Under President Lai, Taiwan became more proactive in addressing and countering China’s threat. The administration also succeeded in reforming the military by appointing a civilian defense minister and adopting an attrition defense strategy against China. It also allocated more funds in asymmetric capabilities under the recommendations of U.S. defense planners and reinvigorate its military industrial base. 
  • Taiwan also cooperated with the U.S. in forming a whole-of-society defense resilience strategy, ensuring the resilience of its telecommunications, energy, and emergency services. It also used mass communication to inform the public about the threat of Chinese attack on Taiwan. Taiwan’s increased military preparedness also boosted economic confidence. 
  • Taiwan could do more despite the increased effort: 
  1. The current level of military spending is insufficient. It should match NATO’s aim of a 5% defense spending. 
  2. Taiwan have around 1.5 million reservists, but they lacked equipment, training, and logistics for deployment. 
  3. Taiwan’s energy security is still a major concern, especially it still relied on energy important while shutting down its nuclear reactors. 
  • Nevertheless, Taiwan proved its effort for self-defense, which may encourage the U.S. to support the island in case of a conflict. 
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