作者/Author(s): Stephen Sestanovich 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 05/01/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 和平協議、川普、烏克蘭 


摘要：
川普對自己未能結束俄烏戰爭感到失望，只好不斷尋找代罪羔羊。然而，他應將焦點轉向促成俄烏雙方可能接受的妥協方案，以實現停火理想。 
  • 川普應該認清事實，要達成雙方都能同意且能確保持久和平的全面解決方案是不可能的任務。俄羅斯堅持要求烏克蘭去軍事化，而烏克蘭則希望收復所有失土、獲得永久安全保障以應對可能再次被侵略的未來、爭取戰爭損失的補償，以及追究俄羅斯發起戰爭的責任。 
  • 雖然這與川普理想中的協議相差甚遠，但川普及其談判團隊應追求次佳的選項，力求終止敵對行動，同時保留未來和平進程的空間。 
  • 在充分理解雙方訴求後，美方應避免重蹈過去阻礙和平談判的錯誤。 
  1. 烏克蘭不會接受任何讓渡領土給俄羅斯的選項，包括克里米亞。 
  2. 俄羅斯不會接受烏克蘭加入北約或放棄其已吞併的領土。 
  • 如果川普對俄羅斯釋出更多讓步，或威脅退出和平談判，這將只會強化普丁認為俄羅斯正在勝利的錯覺。因此，川普應展示俄羅斯軍事能力的真實狀況，並以美國持續軍援烏克蘭為後盾，提供戰略嚇阻。 
  • 即便川普能促成無條件停火，他的團隊也應思考如何促成長期停火。對烏克蘭人而言，這涉及政治、社會、經濟和安全的完整性，也需要美國或歐洲的援助作為後盾。美國可以參考冷戰的歷史，規劃穩固的停戰機制。 
  • 川普必須重新評估戰爭和他已經犯的錯誤，才能建立長期的和平。他也應了解普丁是和平的障礙，而烏克蘭的和平才是評估川普外交成敗的最終指標。 
Summary: 
Trump is disappointed in his failure to end the Russia-Ukraine War and is constantly looking for someone to blame. He should instead look for possible compromises that Russia and Ukraine could make to secure a ceasefire. 
  • Trump should recognize the impossible task of a comprehensive settlement that both sides can agree on and that will ensure lasting peace. Russia insisted on the demilitarization of Ukraine, while Ukraine wants to reclaim all its lost territories, a permanent security guarantee against future aggression, a repatriation of its losses, and accountability for Russian war crimes. 
  • Although it will be far from Trump's ideal agreement, Trump and his negotiation team should pursue the next best alternative: terminating hostilities while leaving room for an open-ended peace process. 
  • The U.S. should avoid the mistakes that impede peace negotiations after understanding the demands of both sides. 
  1.  Ukraine will not accept any territorial concession to Russia, including Crimea. 
  2. Russia will not agree to NATO membership for Ukraine and the surrender of annexed territories. 
  • If Trump flirts with better concessions to Russia or threatens to walk away from the peace talks, it will only strengthen Putin's beliefs that Russia is winning the war. Therefore, Trump should show the reality of Russia's military capability, backed by the threat of U.S. military support for Ukraine. 
  • Even if Trump can obtain an unconditional ceasefire, his team should determine how to make it last. For the Ukrainians, it involves political, social, economic, and security integrity backed by the U.S. or Europe's assistance. The U.S. could devise answers for an armistice from historical precedents during the Cold War. 
  • Trump must reassess the war and the mistakes he already done to build a durable peace. He should also recognize that Putin is an obstacle to peace and Ukraine's peace is the ultimate measure of his success. 
 
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