作者/Author(s):  

網站來源/Source: The Economist 

日期/Date: 05/01/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、台灣中國


摘要:
16世紀中葉以來,台灣一直是重要的海上貿易島嶼。如今,中國日益頻繁對台灣進行「檢疫式封鎖」,甚至全面封鎖行動,都是為了鞏固北京對台灣及周遭海域的主權主張
  • 中國所謂的「檢疫行動」或「封鎖行動」,事實上是由中國海上執法單位對前往台灣的船隻進行登檢,並限制貨物流入台灣 
  • 封鎖會造成嚴重的全球經濟後果,並引起國際對北京當局的反彈。相比之下檢疫」更具彈性,能減輕國際社會的批評和經濟衝擊 
  • 台積電在全球半導體生產中占據主導地位,這也成為台灣抗衡中國脅迫的重要屏障。台灣政府相信全世界都不會放棄這個島嶼,以確保重要關鍵晶片的供應。然而,也有相反觀點認為,為避免半導體供應中斷,各國最終可能向中國的要求低頭。 
  • 台灣海峽在海上航運中也扮演著重要的角色,台灣已成為重要的轉運點。中國有多種方式可執行海上「檢疫」行動,並對通過相關海域的船舶進行懲罰性措施。因此,若中國在台灣海峽附近實施檢疫行動,將對全球海運造成重大干擾。 
  • 鑒於台灣海峽被封鎖或檢疫的可能性,航運保險公司對行經台灣海峽的風險評估勢必升高,導致保費大幅上漲,航運業者恐尋求繞行路線。然而,除了台灣海峽之外,幾乎沒有其他合適的替代航線,其他航線大多是風險較高或者航程較長,航運成本也更高。 
  • 此外,「檢疫」行動將擾亂全球金融體系,造成國際制裁風險、貿易支付結算困難等問題 
  • 中國若對台灣及其貿易夥伴施加壓力,勢必也會衝擊自身財務體系。戰爭風險會引發市場恐慌,大量外資撤出中國、資產價格暴跌,並對中國的貨幣政策造成重大壓力。 
  • 儘管如此,中國只要了解這些風險,就可以事先做好準備。此外,相較於美國,中國經濟彈性較高,北京得以透過「微調」的方式實施脅迫政策,降低潛風險。 
 
Summary: 
Taiwan has been a vital shipping island since the mid-16th century. Now, the island is facing China's quarantine and possibly blockade operations, all to reinforce Beijing's sovereignty claim over Taiwan and surrounding waters.  
  • China's quarantine and blockade operations allow Chinese maritime enforcers to inspect Taiwan-bound vessels and restrict the flow of goods into the island. 
  • A blockade will have severe global economic consequences and provoke international backlash against the Beijing authorities. In contrast, a quarantine could be fine-tuned to mitigate international criticism and economic fallout. 
  • Taiwan's TSMC dominates semiconductor production, which has been a bulwark against Chinese coercion. The Taiwanese government believes the world will not abandon the island to secure access to the critical commodity. However, there are also contrasting opinions that foreign countries will bow to China's demand to avoid semiconductor supply disruption. 
  • The Taiwan Strait also plays a crucial role in maritime shipping, making Taiwan an important trans-shipment point. China has several ways to enforce quarantine operations and punish ships passing through the area of operations. Therefore, a quarantine near the strait will disrupt maritime trade. 
  • Due to the possibility of quarantine and blockade, shipping insurance premiums for the Taiwan Strait may skyrocket, motivating shippers to divert their route. However, there are few suitable alternatives to the Taiwan Strait because they are riskier or take longer distances, which will require higher shipping costs. 
  • A quarantine will also disrupt global finances due to the possibility of sanctions and inability to conclude trade payments. 
  • Any Chinese effort to pressure Taiwan and its partners will also backfire on its finances. The risk of war will cause panic sell-offs of Chinese assets, plummeting China's asset prices, and straining its monetary policies. 
  • Nevertheless, China understands the risks and could prepare beforehand. Furthermore, the Chinese economy is more resilient than the U.S., allowing the Beijing government to fine-tune its coercion with as little blowback as possible.