作者/Author(s): Zongyuan Zoe Liu 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 04/29/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、貿易戰、中國 


習近平的長遠布局 
  • 習近平的政治生涯建基於兩個信念：抵抗外來威脅和掌握國內權力鬥爭，這兩者是他政治正當性的基礎。他所強調的「吃苦」精神，來自對「百年屈辱」與文化大革命的深刻認識與教訓。 
  • 川普的貿易戰並未削弱中共政權，反而強化了習近平的說法，為中國對抗外部「霸凌」提供正當性，也進一步鞏固中國現行的經濟政策方向。 
  • 中國對美方關稅報復的行為，與其說是「為了面子」，不如說是落實早已準備的長期戰略。 
  1. 自 2018 年以來，北京已為可能發生的貿易戰做好準備，目的是管控與美國之間的戰略競爭，並設法繞開美國可能施加的經濟封鎖。 
  2. 中國鼓勵地方政府與國有企業提升供應鏈韌性，並積極開拓海外市場；同時推廣以人民幣計價的跨境支付系統，以規避美國主導的金融制裁體系。 
  3. 此外，中國也出台多項「反制裁」與「反脅迫」法律，為其報復性措施提供法理基礎，並要求在中國經營的外國企業遵守中國法規。 
  4. 中國亦積極深化與全球各國的貿易關係。 
  • 雖然高昂的關稅會損害中國出口商進入美國市場的機會，但習近平認為中國經濟有足夠能力承受衝擊，必要時也可以與美國「脫鈎」。
沒有穩贏的賭注 
  • 川普關稅戰對國際社會帶來廣泛影響，包括全球供應鏈結構可能發生變化，以及各國開始質疑美國是否還是可信賴的經濟夥伴。 
  • 但中國自身亦非一個穩定可靠的替代者，因為他們國內仍然存在結構性的經濟問題。中國人民對經濟方面的安全感也逐漸流失，因為他們無法獲得全球教育和機會。 
  • 中美兩國的決策菁英，正拿著自家人民的未來當作賭注，這可能引發群體性挫折與失望。 
川普的苦藥 
  • 川普的「極限施壓」策略，只會加深中國懷疑華府企圖圍堵甚至推翻中共政權的敵意。 
  • 若美國要有效與中國競爭，首先應接受對中貿易逆差的結構性現實，並認知他們不可能將製造業全面從中國移回美國。 
  • 更理想的策略，是讓中國面對「兩難困境」而非「最後通牒」，在頂尖科技領域維持與中國競爭的能力，同時確保中國將其貿易順差持續投入美元資產，讓美國在經濟與金融體系中保有長遠主導權。 
 
Xi's Long Game 
  • Xi shaped his political career based on two beliefs: resisting foreign coercion and mastering domestic power struggles, which is the base of his legitimacy. Xi's core message of withstanding bitterness (吃苦) originates from his understanding of the "hundred years of humiliation" and the Cultural Revolution. 
  • Instead of undermining Beijing's rule, Trump's combative trade policy reinforced Xi's narratives, justified the CCP's economic policies, and underlined Beijing's effort to counter foreign bullying. 
  • China's retaliation against the U.S.'s sky-high tariffs is less about saving face and more about implementing a long-planned strategy. 
  1. Beijing had prepared itself against a possible trade war since 2018 to manage its competition with the U.S. and bypass the U.S.'s economic chokeholds. 
  2. Since then, China has asked its local officials and state-owned enterprises to bolster supply chain resilience and expand its presence in foreign markets. China also promoted the global use of Renminbi-based payment systems to circumvent the U.S. financial sanctions. 
  3. China also introduced new anti-sanction and anti-coercion laws to justify its retaliatory measures and coerce companies in the Chinese market to comply with Chinese law. 
  4. China also deepened trade relations worldwide. 
  • Although an exorbitant tariff will harm Chinese exporters' access to the U.S. market, Xi believes China's economy is well-positioned to bear the brunt and could decouple from the U.S. if necessary. 
No Sure Bets 
  • The wider implications of Trump's tariff war include the possibility of a change in global supply chain structure and the doubt of the U.S. as a credible long-term economic partner. 
  • However, China is not a dependable alternative to the U.S. because it still suffers from structural economic problems. Chinese citizens also feel their economic security is waning due to their lack of access to global education and opportunity. 
  • The U.S. and Chinese policymaking elites are willing to gamble with their citizens' future, which may demoralize them. 
Trump's Bitter Pill 
  • Trump's maximum-pressure approach only reinforces China's cynicism about Washington's attempts to contain it and overthrow the CCP regime.  
  • To compete with China, the U.S. must first accept the structural reality of a trade deficit with China, and there is no way to recoup manufacturing from China.  
  • A better way for the U.S. to compete with China is to present it with a dilemma rather than an ultimatum, level its position with China in frontier technologies, and ensure China continues recycling its surplus into U.S. dollar assets.
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