作者/Author(s): Zongyuan Zoe Liu 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 04/29/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、貿易戰、中國


摘要：
川普與中國的關稅僵局對全球社會帶來深遠影響。會有僵局，是因為中美雙方皆未能真正了解對方升高衝突的最終目標。美國政府正試圖緩和關稅戰造成的全球經濟動盪，但面對川普的威脅，習近平展現出強硬態度，甚至聲稱將抗爭到底。 

錯誤的公式  
  • 美國精英對中國和美國本身的了解有誤，導致雙方陷入僵局。
  1. 美國對中鷹派人士普遍認為，北京急著透過談判達成貿易協議，減輕關稅對其社會所造成的經濟壓力，以期維繫政權穩定。 
  2. 美國財政部長也誤解中國經濟成長緩慢，陷入嚴重蕭條，誤以為美方掌握談判優勢。 
  3. 美國商務部長則認為川普的貿易政策不僅不會引發衰退，反而能有效促進美國經濟。 
  4. 川普政府甚至一度認為習近平將親自出面談判。 
  • 這些評估有些準確，有些則完全不準。美國沒想到中國會選擇承受壓力並採取報復行動。而習近平也不打算親自與川普見面，反而選擇授權下屬進行談判工作。 
  • 美中雙方領導人的風格差異極大，阻礙了有效的外交溝通。北京方面認為，領導人層級會面難以產生實質成果，反而對美方有利，並可能對中方構成風險。中國始終沒有忘記 2017 年川普在與習近平會面後立即發動貿易戰的教訓。 

Summary: 
Trump is in a tariff war standoff with China, with effects reverberating worldwide. The deadlock occurred because neither China nor the Trump administration understands the other's ultimate goal for escalation. While the U.S. administration is trying to mitigate the global economic turmoil caused by the tariff war, Xi has shown defiance under Trump's threats and will fight until the end. 

Faulty Formulas 
  • The U.S. elites misperceived China and the U.S. itself in some ways, leading to the current stalemate. 
  1. China hawks in the U.S. anticipate that Beijing is desperate to negotiate a trade deal to reduce the economic pain inflicted on its society and preserve the CCP's rule. 
  2. The U.S. Treasury Secretary also misinterprets China's slow economic growth as severe depression, which gives the U.S. an advantage. 
  3. Trump's Commerce Secretary also believes Trump's policies will boost America's economy, not cause a recession. 
  4. The Trump administration also believes that Xi will personally iron out a deal with Trump. 
  • Such assessments are partially accurate or miss the target completely. The U.S. misjudged that China would withstand the pressure and retaliate. Furthermore, Xi has no interest in building personal connections with Trump, preferring to delegate negotiations to his underlings.
  • The difference in leadership style impedes effective diplomacy. China also thinks a meeting between the leaders will not warrant substantive results, will benefit only the U.S., and will pose some risks to itself. Lastly, China has not forgotten the lesson of 2017, when Trump launched a trade war immediately after a meeting with Xi. 
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