作者/Author(s): Christopher S. Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 05/01/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 兩岸關係、台灣、川普


摘要：
當年陳水扁前總統將台灣推向接近獨立的邊緣、可能引發台海危機時，美國總統小布希曾公開警告陳水扁，並向中國表明美方不支持其立場。在台灣賴清德總統將中國定為「境外敵對勢力」，並積極對抗中國對台滲透後，川普可能得採取行動。賴清德此舉激怒了北京，並在台灣周邊發動封鎖演習，美國譴責中國軍事升級是正確的，但卻忽略了賴清德的政治升級。因此，川普政府應阻止賴清德誤將華盛頓的意圖當作是對其舉動的認同，並將美國引向與中國的戰爭。 
  • 自賴清德就任以來，他持續強調台灣是「主權獨立的國家」，也積極提升國防預算、實施全民防衛訓練，有助於鞏固台灣的防衛能力並提升嚇阻力。然而，其他行為可能無益於防衛，反而挑釁北京，升高風險。 
  • 雖然賴清德並未正式宣布除「中華民國與中華人民共和國互不隸屬」之外的台灣獨立宣言，但他將台灣定義為中國之外的獨立實體，並將中國標記為「境外敵對勢力」，形成「切香腸式」的策略行動。這類行為對於高度關心兩岸關係者來說意義重大，但對其他國際觀察者而言，警訊可能尚未響起。 
  • 賴清德的行動可能會提高國內支持度，但同時也增加發生戰爭的可能性。若賴清德將台灣持續推向法理獨立，而習近平判斷可能永遠失去台灣，北京或將以軍事手段回應。 
  • 中國對台灣採取脅迫策略，理應承擔主要責任，但美國也應防止台灣過度挑釁北京，導致兩岸緊張局勢升級。到目前為止，川普稱讚賴清德提升台灣的防衛承擔，沒有譴責賴清德推動台灣獨立。然而，這並不意味著兩岸爆發戰事，美國一定會站在台灣這邊。 
  • 川普無需像上月對澤倫斯基般公開批評賴清德。 
  1. 他可選擇鼓勵兩岸恢復2016年前的對話機制，並明確反對任何片面宣布台灣獨立的行動。 
  2. 此外，川普亦可向習近平保證，美國不支持台灣獨立，同時反對中國對台灣進行任何形式的脅迫。 
  • 若川普真心希望維護台海和平與現狀，那麼他就應設法阻止賴清德打開台灣獨立的潘朵拉盒子，換取美方持續的支持。 
 
Summary: 
When former Taiwanese President Chen Shui Bian inched Taiwan close to independence and risked provoking a cross-strait crisis, U.S. President George W. Bush warned Chen against such moves and told China that the U.S. did not support his narratives. Trump may have to act after Taiwan's President Lai designated China a "foreign hostile force" and devised "proactive measures" to counter Chinese infiltration on the island. This move provoked Beijing to launch blockade exercises around the island. The U.S. is correct in condemning China's military escalation but has ignored Lai's political escalation. Therefore, the Trump administration should stop Lai from mistaking Washington's intentions as an approval of his move and leading the U.S. into a war with China. 
  • Since Lai took office, he has continued to assert Taiwan's status as a "sovereign and independent nation." Some moves, including ramping up defense spending and implementing civil-defense training programs, promote Taiwan's defense and bolster deterrence, but other moves provoke Beijing for no benefit. 
  • Although Lai stopped short of declaring an independent China, he positioned Taiwan as an independent entity from China and branded China a hostile foreign actor. This "salami-slicing" tactic only matters to those concerned about cross-strait relations and will not ring an alarm for others. 
  • Lai's actions may boost domestic support while increasing the likelihood of a war no one wants to fight. As Lai pushes Taiwan closer to independence, Xi may resort to military operations if he perceives Taiwan will be lost forever. 
  • China bears the blame for coercing Taiwan, but the U.S. should prevent Lai from provoking Beijing and escalate the cross-strait tension before it is too late. So far, Trump has praised Lai for enhancing Taiwan's defense commitment and not censuring Lai's push toward Taiwan's independence. However, it does not mean the U.S. will side with Taiwan if a war with China breaks out. 
  • Trump does not need to publicly criticize Lai, as he did with Zelensky last month. 
  1. He could encourage China and Taiwan to continue the cross-strait dialogue that existed before 2016 and oppose any unilateral move to declare Taiwan's independence.  
  2. Furthermore, Trump could assure Xi that he does not support Taiwan's independence and rejects any coercion against Taiwan. 
  • If Trump is serious about preserving peace and the status quo, he should stop Lai from opening Pandora's box of Taiwan's independence in exchange for continued support from the U.S. 
 
回上層