作者/Author(s): David J. Kramer 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 04/30/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 和平協議、美國、普丁 


摘要：
川普希望終結俄烏危機的意圖值得肯定，但其手段卻相對難以接受。最近有報導指出，川普的和平提案包括割讓烏克蘭領土予俄羅斯，作為永久停火的交換條件。不論法律上或事實上，承認俄羅斯對克里米亞、盧甘斯克、扎波羅熱、頓內茨克和赫爾松等地的控制，都違反了國際法，並可能鼓勵其他國家侵略吞併其他受害者的土地，如果受害者能夠佔領夠久，最終便可獲得美國的承認。
  •  這項和平提案不僅不利於美國國家安全，更可能引發前所未見的連鎖反應。克里米亞是目前危機的起因，也是烏克蘭人的痛。雖然有些烏克蘭人同意割讓部分領土，以換取長久的和平，但多數民眾仍堅決反對，並表示願意戰鬥到底以奪回失土。 
  • 川普在教宗方濟各的葬禮上與澤倫斯基會面時，有機會重新考慮他在烏克蘭危機中的立場。  
  1. 澤倫斯基一貫主張，烏克蘭願意結束戰爭，但前提是俄羅斯不得再次入侵。然而川普卻錯誤解讀澤倫斯基的話，認為烏克蘭準備將克里米亞割讓予俄羅斯作為和平協議的一部分，這一說法遭澤倫斯基強烈否認。 
  2. 俄羅斯看似也未打算結束戰爭，持續猛烈轟炸烏克蘭。面對此情勢，川普僅以「考慮增加對俄金融制裁」作為回應。 
  • 美國的提案顯然偏向莫斯科，普丁犯下諸多暴行，卻仍獲得有利條件。 
  1. 此外，該提案也限制了烏克蘭取得北約會員資格，並將烏克蘭的政治與安全放在俄羅斯的意志之下。  
  2. 烏克蘭近期已與美國簽署礦產協議，以換取美方持續支持。 
  3. 該提案包括歐洲與非歐洲國家提供的潛在安全保證及財務補償，但並未討論任何具體的落實架構或保障機制。 
  • 即使在烏方提出重大讓步後，普丁仍未停止其敵意。他不僅無視川普要求俄方停火的命令，更拒絕接受美國提出、烏克蘭已表示願意遵守的30天停火協議。因此，烏克蘭，尤其是美國，不應該倒向普丁提出的任何建議。 
Summary: 
Trump's ambition to end the Ukrainian Crisis is commendable, but the same cannot be said for his methods. Recent reports suggest Trump's peace proposal includes the surrender of Ukrainian territories to Russia in exchange for a permanent ceasefire. The recognition of Russian control over Crimea, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kershon, regardless of de jure or de facto, violates international law and could encourage other aggressors to annex land from other victims and gain eventual U.S. recognition if they could hold ground long enough. 
  • The peace proposal is terrible for U.S. national security and may create unprecedented events. Crimea is the casus belli of the current crisis and a sore spot for Ukrainians. Although some Ukrainians agree to cede some territories in exchange for long-lasting peace, most people reject the idea and will fight till the end to recapture the lost territories. 
  • Trump had the opportunity to reconsider his position in the Ukrainian Crisis when he met Zelensky at Pope Francis's funeral.  
  1. Zelensky always insisted that Ukraine wanted to terminate the war under the condition that Russia would not invade again. However, Trump interprets Zelensky's words as Ukraine is prepared to cede Crimea to Russia as part of a possible peace deal, which Zelensky strongly opposes. 
  2. Russia also did not intend to end the war and continued its relentless bombing of Ukraine. However, Trump only responded with the possibility of increasing financial sanctions on Russia. 
  • The U.S.'s current proposal favors Moscow despite Putin's atrocities.  
  1. Furthermore, it restricts Ukraine from obtaining NATO membership and binds Ukraine's politics and security to Russia's desires.  
  2. Ukraine also signed a mineral deal agreement with the U.S. for continued U.S. support.  
  3. Although the proposal includes possible security guarantees from European and non-European countries and financial compensation, there is no robust framework for implementing these measures.  
  • Despite the significant concession, Putin did not stop his hostility. He defied Trump's order to end the war and refused the U.S.'s 30-day ceasefire proposal that Ukraine had agreed to. Therefore, Ukraine and especially the U.S. should not fall to any proposals that Putin proposed. 
 
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