作者/Author(s): Ray Wang 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 04/30/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 科技、出口管制、AI晶片 


摘要：
美國實施了新的出口限制，禁止將較老舊'的圖形處理器（GPU）銷售給中國。根據先前的規定，輝達（Nvidia）、AMD 和英特爾（Intel） 等公司可以向中國銷售特定頻寬或較低門檻的處理器。但是依據新規定，即便是相似性能的處理器，甚至其他較老舊的晶片，如今也需經由美國商務部工業與安全局（Bureau of Industry and Security）取得出口許可證。 
  • 這項新限制延續了拜登政府的出口管制措施，也承接了川普政府限制中國取得先進AI晶片的政策方向。  
  • 然而，這一限制可能會完全改變中國的AI晶片市場格局，因為美國半導體公司再也無法針對中國市場設計與銷售符合出口門檻的晶片。 
  • 輝達、AMD 和英特爾的營收與市佔率都將減少，甚至可能因此逐步退出中國市場。 
  • 中國的企業，尤其是華為，已具備生產類似性能AI晶片的能力，並可能填補美國公司退出所留下的市場空缺。目前華為正如期量產自己的 AI 晶片，並投入下一代晶片的設計。 
  • 中國科技公司可以依賴目前庫存的輝達和AMD晶片，在出口管制實施前或透過非法途徑取得這些晶片，已經足夠應付未來幾年的AI模型訓練需求。 
  • 然而，中國整體運算需求上升、外國GPU庫存耗盡與過時等問題，將驅使中國AI公司轉向國產AI晶片，進而帶動本土晶片製造業的發展。 
  • 美國新的出口管制門檻在短期內可能可以阻礙中國的人工智會發展。但長期看來，中國可能會使用大量較老舊的西方處理器或改為國內替代品來發展AI技術。最終，美國不但未能孤立中國，反而間接促進了中國AI產業的成長。 
 
Summary: 
The U.S. imposed new export restrictions, banning the sales of less advanced graphic processing units (GPU) to China. Under previous provisions, firms such as Nvidia, AMD, and Intel could sell processors with specific bandwidths or lower thresholds to China. However, now they require a license from the Bureau of Industry and Security to export processors with similar performance and possibly other less advanced chips. 
  • The new restrictions continued the Biden administration's export controls and the Trump administration's effort to restrict China from obtaining advanced AI chips.  
  • However, the new limits may fundamentally shape China's AI chip market because U.S. semiconductor firms cannot design and sell chips that could be exported to the Chinese market. 
  • Nvidia, AMD, and Intel are poised to lose revenues and may need to withdraw from the Chinese market as their market share declines. 
  • Chinese firms, especially Huawei, are already capable of producing AI chips of similar performance and may fill up the void left by the U.S. firms. Huawei is on schedule to mass produce its version of AI chips and is designing next-generation ones. 
  • Chinese technology firms could rely on their current inventory of Nvidia and AMD chips obtained before the export controls or acquire them through illicit means to train their AI models for the next several years. 
  • However, as China's overall computing demand rise and when foreign GPUs deplete and becomes outdated, Chinese AI firms will shift to indigeniously manufactured AI chips, allowing local chip manufacturers to grow. 
  • The new U.S. export control threshold may hamper China's AI development for a short-term. However, over time, China could use large number of less advanced Western processors or rely on domestic alternatives to develop their AI. Consequently, the U.S. may give China the boost instead of isolating it. 
 
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