作者/Author(s): Hal Brands 

網站來源/Source: American Enterprise Institute 

日期/Date: 04/14/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、國際政治、川普、中國 


摘要：
川普暫緩對多國徵收關稅的全球關稅戰，卻將對中國商品的關稅提高至150%。若川普能克服其衝動與中國的報復措施，他就有機會可以贏得這場對中經濟冷戰。 
  • 川普對貿易夥伴的關稅政策反覆無常，卻對中國採取越來越強硬的關稅措施；這可能是川普孤立中國、引誘北京坐上談判桌的計畫。然而，習近平並未上鉤，反而對美國進口商品實施對等報復。北京的反應令川普感到意外，也引發美國國內對川普的反彈聲浪。 
  • 中國從未掩飾想主導21世紀的野心，並試圖利用自身龐大的市場、生產基地與不公平貿易行為達成目標。中國的最終目的是減少對其他經濟體的依賴，同時最大化其他國家對中國的依賴。 
  • 美國不能對中國在全球經濟中的掠奪性行為坐視不管。然而，若要遏止中國，川普必須意識到美國需要採取雙軌策略。 
  1. 第一，限制中國進入西方市場、獲取資金和技術，同時減少美國對對手的依賴。 
  2. 第二則是深化與理念相近國家的合作，建立與中國競爭的集體韌性與規模。 
  • 川普的顧問可能也有類似的想法，但他們必須意識到四個關鍵風險：
  1. 美中關係未來只會持續惡化，甚至可能會在貿易之外的其他議題上產生外溢效應，例如台灣議題。 
  2. 關稅是川普的首選手段，但並不足以對抗中國。川普政府應該制定全面的策略，並延續拜登政府值得繼續推行的政策。 
  3. 美國必須取得其他貿易夥伴的合作，防止中國規避關稅壁壘。
  4. 川普必須克制其自我毀滅的衝動，不該稱讚專制領導人的同時又對其國家採取強硬態度，以免混淆盟友。 
 
Summary: 
Trump suspended his global tariff war against many countries while hiking the tariff rate on China to 150%. If Trump could overcome his impulsiveness and China's retaliation, he may win the economic cold war against China.  
  • Trump's on-and-off tariff policies against partners and increasingly hawkish tariffs on China could be a plan to isolate China and lure Beijing into the negotiation table. However, Xi did not take the bait and responded tit-for-tat against U.S. imports. Beijing's move surprised Trump and caused domestic backlashes in the U.S. against Trump. 
  • China did not hide its ambition to dominate the 21st century using its massive market, production bases, and unfair trade practices. The ultimate aim is to reduce dependence on other economies while maximizing their reliance on China. 
  • The U.S. can't stand by and do nothing against China's predatory practices in the global economy. However, to stop China, Trump must realize that the U.S. must employ a dual-track approach. 
  1. The first involves limiting China's access to Western markets, finances, and technology while decreasing the U.S.'s reliance on adversaries. 
  2. The second involves deepening cooperation with like-minded countries to build collective resilience and scale to compete with China. 
  • Trump's advisers may have similar ideas, but they must realize four key dangers: 
  1. U.S.-China relations will only spiral downward from here and may have spillover effects on matters other than trade, such as Taiwan. 
  2. Tariffs are Trump's preferred instrument, but they are inadequate against China. The Trump administration should devise a comprehensive strategy and continue the worthwhile policies of previous administrations.  
  3. The U.S. must get cooperation from other trade partners to prevent China from circumventing tariff barriers. 
  4. Trump must restrain his self-destructing impulses of praising authoritarian leaders but being tough on the country to avoid confusing allies. 
 
回上層