作者/Author(s): Olivia Yanchik 

網站來源/Source: Atlantic Council 

日期/Date: 04/25/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、川普、關稅
 

摘要：
川普暫停對除中國以外的 185 個國家徵收對等關稅，破壞了全球經濟的穩定。川普辯稱此舉是為了保護美國的經濟和國家安全。然而，俄羅斯應該是美國的國家安全威脅，川普政府卻明顯地將其排除在外。 
  • 俄羅斯在對烏克蘭的全面戰爭中進行恐怖行為，違反了國際法，對全球秩序構成威脅。 
  • 川普之所以排除俄羅斯，是因為美俄貿易往來早就因制裁而大幅萎縮。然而，俄羅斯仍持續向美國出口濃縮鈾與其他商品，俄美貿易量仍高於一些被對等徵收關稅的經濟體，而且美國對俄羅斯有貿易逆差。根據這些標準，俄羅斯符合「解放日」的關稅要求。 
  • 川普政府可能是出於與俄羅斯停火談判的考量，才將其排除在報復性關稅名單之外。 
  • 除了制裁之外，美國仍可透過其他經濟手段限制與俄羅斯的貿易，包括對俄羅斯進口品（如化肥、貴金屬、無機化學品）徵收關稅，並對其他產品（如飛機零件、藥品）施加出口限制。 
  • 若川普主張對中國的高額關稅是基於國家安全考量，那麼俄羅斯也應被納入關稅對象。 
  • 與中國相比，川普對普丁的態度明顯較為寬容，有意恢復與俄羅斯的雙邊關係。然而，俄羅斯市場的戰略價值遠不如中國，且對美國安全仍構成重大威脅。 
  • 隨著俄羅斯的侵略行動持續進行，美國的國家安全與全球穩定也將受到進一步損害。若川普願意對貿易額更低、貿易逆差更小的國家徵收高額關稅，那他就不應該把俄羅斯排除在外。 
 
Summary: 
Trump's paused reciprocal tariffs on 185 countries, except for China, destabilized the global economy. Trump justified his move to protect the U.S.'s economic and national security. However, the Trump administration notably excluded Russia from the reciprocal tariffs despite it being a national security threat. ​​​​​​​Russia conducted acts of terror in its full-scale war against Ukraine, violating international law and threatening the global order.
  • Russia conducted acts of terror in its full-scale war against Ukraine, violating international law and threatening the global order. 
  • Trump excluded Russia from the reciprocal tariffs because the U.S. had minimal trade ties with Russia due to sanctions. However, Russia still exported enriched uranium and other products to the U.S. The Russia-U.S. trade volume is still higher than some economies slapped with reciprocal tariffs, and the U.S. has a trade deficit with Russia. Based on these criteria, Russia fits the "Liberation Day" tariff requirements. 
  • The Trump administration may have excluded Russia from the reciprocal tariffs because of cease-fire negotiations. 
  • Other economic instruments besides sanctions could limit U.S. trade with Russia. The U.S. could impose tariffs on Russian imports (fertilizer, precious minerals, inorganic chemicals) and export restrictions on other products (aircraft parts, pharmaceuticals). 
  • If Trump bases his reciprocal tariffs on national security grounds, such as those he did towards China, then Russia should also be a target of tariffs. 
  • Trump is relatively soft on Putin compared to China and is interested in restoring bilateral relations with Russia. However, the Russian market is less valuable than the Chinese and still a significant threat to U.S. security interests. 
  • As Putin continues his aggression in Ukraine, it will harm the U.S. national security interests and global stability. If Trump is willing to impose exorbitant tariffs on countries with lower trade volume and deficits than Russia, then he should not exclude Russia.  
回上層