作者/Author(s): Agathe Demarais 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 04/25/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、川普、中國 

 

摘要：
川普的關稅戰反覆無常，讓各國政府無所適從。北京政府認為，美國要求各國政府對中國設置高額貿易壁壘，是在強迫全球與中國脫鈎。因此，北京已公開警告各國，不要配合任何會損害中國利益的美國政策。北京的假設是，美國會保留對中國產品的高額關稅，同時暫停對其他產品的對等關稅。如果北京的預測正確，美國的做法其實非常危險，甚至可能適得其反。 
  • 事實上，脫鉤計畫對美國造成的損害可能遠超過中國。美國從中國的進口額是中國自美進口的三倍，意味著美國企業在關稅上承擔的成本更高。 
  1. 美國從中國進口許多高科技和替代性極低的電子產品。相比之下，中國很容易就能找到其他供應商來替代自美國進口的產品，或在缺乏美國商品的情況下照常運作。 
  2. 中國也可以限制美國取得關鍵產品，例如藥品和稀土。 
  • 若美國強迫其他國家「選邊站」，結果未必樂觀。 
  1. 歐盟在川普宣布關稅措施後，與中國的關係有升溫跡象。 與美方的預期相反，歐洲可能與北京就部分經濟爭端進行和解，例如中國電動車的關稅問題。 
  2. 大多數國家將中國視為最大貿易與投資夥伴，在考慮是否與中國脫鉤時，會更加謹慎並全面評估國家利益。 
  3. 因此，多數國家將採取象徵性讓步來安撫川普政府。 
  • 因此，多數國家將採取象徵性讓步來安撫川普政府。 
  1. 更令人擔憂的是，越來越多國家領導人開始認為美國比中國更具威脅性，就連美國的傳統盟友也這樣想。 
  2. 他們也懷疑川普的可信度，他的政策前後不一，經常出爾反爾。 
  3. 如果國際社會沒有其他替代強權存在，各國仍願意配合美國的意願。但如今，中國正把握機會扮演「負責任的利益相關人」，並試圖取代「敵對的華府」成為更值得信賴的替代領導力量。
Summary: 
Trump's tariff war is confusing the world, repeatedly going on and off. The Beijing government assumes that the U.S. is forcing a global decoupling from China by asking governments to impose high trade barriers on China. Consequently, Beijing has warned other countries against abiding by U.S. directives that could undermine its interests. Beijing based its assumption that the U.S. retains exorbitant tariffs on Chinese products while suspending reciprocal tariffs on others. If Beijing's prediction is correct, the U.S.'s approach is dangerous and could backfire. 
  • The decoupling plan could hurt the U.S. more than China because the U.S. imports from China three times more than the other way around. Therefore, U.S. firms will have to spend more on tariffs than their Chinese counterparts. 
  1. The U.S. imports high-technology and difficult-to-substitute electronic gadgets from China. In contrast, China could easily replace U.S. imports with other suppliers or do well without U.S. goods. 
  2. The U.S. imports high-technology and difficult-to-substitute electronic gadgets from China. In contrast, China could easily replace U.S. imports with other suppliers or do well without U.S. goods. 
  • If the U.S. forces all countries to pick a side, it is unclear whether they will side with the U.S. 
  1. The EU increasingly warmed up to Beijing after Trump's tariff announcement. Contrary to the U.S.'s assumptions, the bloc may reconcile with Beijing on some economic disputes, such as tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle. 
  2. Most countries have China as the largest trading and investment partner, which governments will consider thoroughly before decoupling from China. 
  3. Therefore, most countries will preserve relations with the U.S. and China by giving meaningless but appeasing concessions to Trump. 
  • Furthermore, most countries will not abandon China without apparent concessions from the U.S. 
  1. Many leaders consider the U.S. more threatening than China today, even among traditional allies. 
  2. They also doubt Trump's credibility, particularly because his policies are inconsistent, and he often backtracks. 
  3. The world will willingly abide by the U.S. if no alternative hegemon exists. However, China now has the opportunity to be a responsible stakeholder and become a better alternative to a hostile Washington. 
 
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