作者/Author(s): William Matthews 

網站來源/Source: Chatham House 

日期/Date: 04/15/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、中國、稀土出口 
 

摘要：

川普的關稅戰激起了中國採取管制稀土礦產出口的報復手段。此一限制可能會美國的能力嚴重削弱美國的國防工業及其再工業化目標。從長遠來看，這可能會讓中國在美中競逐態勢中獲得關鍵優勢。 

  • 面對川普的壓力，中國選擇「戰到底」，開始對部分稀土與磁性材料實施出口管制。
  • 中國擁有全球最大規模的稀土開採與加工能力。美國稀土產量排名全球第二，儲量則位居第七，但在進口上高度依賴中國，不得不將重要礦產排除在關稅之外。  
  • 中國在稀土供應鏈的主導地位，稀土對美國利益的重要性，而這可能是美國技術和軍事優勢的潛在威脅。  
  1. 因為美國限制中國取得先進半導體，中國可能會以削弱美國供應鏈上游作為報復。 
  2. 稀土對美國推動軍事再工業化與維持軍事領導地位十分重要，中國的行動將削弱川普希望藉由部署新一代武器系統取得競爭優勢的野心。
  • ​​​​​​​美國可以透過發展本土稀土開採與加工設施來降低對中國的依賴。然而，這需要長時間投入，而且會產生高昂的財務與環境成本。 
  • 中國擁有龐大的製造能力，這意味著他們在長期衝突中，能比美國更快速且大量地生產武器彈藥，作戰能力相對充足。 
  • 美國可攜手盟友，共同削弱中國的製造優勢，但中國隨時可以修改出口限制，並施壓特定國家，阻止這些國家與美國合作。此外，美國對盟友徵收關稅，已損害了雙邊外交關係與互信，許多國家在貿易戰中可能會越來越不願站在美國一方。 
 

Summary: 

Trump's tariff war provoked retaliation from China in the form of rare earth mineral export control. China's ability to restrict the U.S. may severely undermine the U.S. defense industry and its reindustrialization goals. In the long term, it may give China a critical advantage in its strategic rivalry with the U.S. 

  • Instead of bowing down to Trump, China opted to "fight to the end" in the ongoing tariff war, starting by imposing export controls on some rare earths and magnets. 
  • China had the world's most extensive rare earth extraction and processing capacity. The U.S. is second behind China in rare earth production with the seventh largest reserve, but it relies on China for imports and has to exclude critical minerals from its tariffs.  
  • China's dominance over the supply chain indicated the importance of rare earths to U.S. interests and may damage American technological and military primacy.  
  1. As the U.S. restricts China's access to advanced semiconductors, China could reciprocate by cutting the U.S.'s supply chain upstream. 
  2. Since rare earths are crucial for the U.S. military reindustrialization and military leadership, China's actions will undermine Trump's ambition to prevail against China and obtain an edge by deploying new-generation weaponry before the U.S. 
  • The U.S. could reduce its rare earth reliance on China by developing indigenous extraction and processing facilities. However, these would take a long time and have high financial and environmental costs. 
  • China's manufacturing capacity allows it to sustain a sufficient combat capability against the U.S. in a protracted conflict by producing more weapons and ammunition faster than the U.S. 
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