作者/Author(s): Kurt M. Campbell and Rush Doshi 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 4/10/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、中國、美國 


崛起還是衰落？ 
  • 自2008年金融危機以來，許多專家預言美國國力衰退，中國則會快速崛起。然而，COVID-19疫情與中國人口結構的惡化，阻礙了中國的崛起。
  • 雖然中國現在面臨諸多挑戰，但它依然是強勁的戰略競爭對手，其在多項經濟、科技與軍事指標上也已超越美國。 
  • 中國的結構性困境是一種長期壓力，但在與美國競爭的中期內，仍是可控且可調整的。 
  1. 中國可透過其龐大的青年人口、相對低的扶養比、高度教育投資與工業自動化，來緩解勞動力不足問題。 
  2. 至於債務問題，中國的債務水準與其他主要經濟體很相似。雖然中國的房地產產業面臨困境，但北京可將資源與信貸重新分配至其他產業政策上，提升整體競爭力。 
  3. 即使中國的困境比專家預期更嚴重，它仍比曾挑戰美國的其他國家都更強大。 
  • 美國過度強調自身衰退的「自我實現預言」恐成為真正的風險。然而，美國若能正確認識自身的限制，並合理評估中國的實力，仍有機會扭轉這股「衰退主義」風潮。 
以「規模能力」為核心的國家戰略 
  • 美國若要制定一套長久的大國競爭策略，必須接受三個現實： 
  1. 規模是最重要的 
  2. 中國所擁有的國力規模遠超美國曾面對的任何對手。北京當前的困難，在短期內也不會削弱這種「規模性優勢」。 
  3. 美國必須整合盟友的潛力，建立足夠強大的集體規模。 
 
Rise of Fall? 
  • Many experts doomsaid the fall of the weakened U.S. and the rise of a rapidly growing China since the 2008 financial crisis. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and deteriorating demography stalled China's ascension. 
  • Despite its problems, China is still a formidable strategic rival because it has outclassed the U.S. in several economic, technological, and military metrics. 
  • China's predicaments will be a significant challenge in the long term, but they are manageable in the middle term, particularly in competition with the U.S. 
  1. China could resolve its labor shortfalls with its current high youth population, low dependency ratio, investment in education, and promotion of industrial automation. 
  2. China's debt levels are also similar to those of other economies. Although China faces problems in its real estate industry, it could redirect credit from it to other industrial policies to boost industrial competitiveness. 
  3. If China's weaknesses are more severe than predicted, it will still be more formidable than any past U.S. challengers. 
  • The U.S.'s "self-fulling prophecy" of declinism could be a risk. However, the U.S. could reverse its declinism by understanding its limitations and accurately estimating China's capabilities.
Capacity-Centric Statecraft 
  • The U.S. must accept three realities to formulate a long-term competition strategy: 
  1. Scale is imperative. 
  2. China's scale is unprecedented compared to anything the U.S. has faced. Beijing's difficulties will not fundamentally change its scale anytime. 
  3. The U.S. must harness its alliances' potential to build a sufficient scale of its own. 
  • This means that the U.S.'s primary objective for alliances is not to project power but to preserve it. 
  • If the U.S. could assemble like-minded democracies and economies, it could outscale China in nearly all dimensions. However, the U.S. can only materilize the potential of this coalition by harnessing the potential of all the involved parties and coordinating their resources across multiple domains. 
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