作者/Author(s): Kurt M. Campbell and Rush Doshi 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 4/10/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、中國、美國 


摘要：
美國在分析大國競爭中的自身地位時應該抱持客觀而謹慎的態度，絕不可單打獨鬥面對中國。美國政府應調整戰略方向，避免孤立盟友與夥伴，積極建立整體聯盟能力，讓盟邦也能貢獻軍事、經濟與科技長處。
從規模到規模化 
  • 一個真正的大國不僅需要具備「規模」（size），還必須擁有「規模化能力」（scale），也就是將規模轉化為效率和生產力，以超越競爭對手的能力。 
  • 許多小國之所以能崛起，是因為搶得先機，率先在大國忽視的領域取得突破。然而，一旦技術擴散、其他國家提升生產力，小國的優勢便可能消失，甚至走向衰退。 
  • 英國便是一個例子。在美國與德國在經濟崛起時，英國走向去工業化及國力下滑的困境。大英帝國的瓦解削弱了其「規模化」能力，也象徵著一個時代的結束。 
  • 許多大國在兩次世界大戰期間認可了美國的工業能力，甚至害怕其潛力。美國最終成為全球霸主。 
  • 如今，中國不僅具備龐大規模，更掌握了將之轉化為國力的能力；而美國的處境則有如百年前的英國。美國可以汲取英國的經驗，將盟友和合作夥伴的能力轉化為「規模化」優勢，維持其國際社會領導人的地位。 
 
Summary: 
The U.S. should be objective and meticulous when assessing its position in a great power competition. The U.S. cannot do it alone when it comes to facing China. Instead of isolating allies and partners, the current U.S. administration must reorient its strategy to build capacity and allow all members of its alliance network to contribute to its military, economic, and technological development.  
From Size to Scale 
  • A great power must be large in size and have scale, which is the ability to translate size into efficiency and productivity to outperform its rivals. 
  • Many small states became prominent due to first-mover advantage, often exploiting areas where larger states were ignored. However, they may lose their advantage and decline once technology diffuses and other states become more productive.  
  • Great Britain deindustrialized and declined when the U.S. and Germany rose to economic prominence. The dissolution of the British Empire, which eroded its scale, marked the end of the British great power era. 
  • Many great powers acknowledged the U.S.'s industrial capacity during the First and Second World Wars and feared its potential. The U.S. eventually materializes the anticipations. 
  • China now possesses an overwhelming size and scale, while the U.S. is in a position similar to Great Britain a century ago. The U.S. could learn from the British experience by harnessing the capabilities of alliances and partners for scale. 
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