作者/Author(s): Graham Allison 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 03/18/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 和平協議、烏克蘭 


摘要：
美國軍方領導人認為烏克蘭已達到極限，對於烏克蘭繼續作戰並收復失地感到悲觀，而烏克蘭軍方也抱有一樣的想法。
  •  在消耗戰中，能夠快速重建軍力並繼續戰鬥的一方將佔有較大優勢。 
  1. 雖然俄羅斯傷亡慘重，但在這場戰爭中，俄羅斯還是處於較有利的位置。 
  2. 另一方面，烏克蘭的軍事、經濟與人口狀況急劇惡化。 
  • 鑑於戰事長期處於僵局，川普希望儘快停止戰爭，甚至在2月與澤倫斯基的會面中公開指責他。烏克蘭不應再期待歐洲能協助扭轉局勢，而是應聚焦當前已取得的成果，試圖透過談判達成長期的和平。 
  • 在與俄羅斯談判之前，烏克蘭應掌握七個原則： 
  1. 川普將是談判桌上最關鍵的角色，他不太可能改變對戰爭和普丁的看法。因此，澤倫斯基應展現耐心，甚至可能需要迎合川普。 
  2. 烏克蘭人應該接受與一個大國大幅接壤的事實。澤倫斯基應參考其他國家（如墨西哥、加拿大、哈薩克、蒙古及芬蘭）如何與強鄰和平共處。 
  3. 澤倫斯基必須理解此次的和平並不會長久，反而更像是韓戰的長期停火或休戰協定。因此，烏克蘭應避免挑釁俄羅斯，建立可靠的嚇阻力量，隨時保持警覺以求生存。 
  4. 既然普丁不會接受烏克蘭加入北約作為和平協議的一部分，澤倫斯基就應該忘記這一點。 
  5. 澤倫斯基應該評估烏克蘭可能爭取到的最佳安全承諾，並在必要時尋求多國合作。 
  6. 澤倫斯基必須向川普明確表達，停火不應成為俄羅斯重整軍備的機會，必須要能長期維持和平。 
  7. 烏克蘭的長期生存取決於歐洲，因此和平協議必須保障烏克蘭強化與歐盟經濟聯繫的權利，甚至包括未來加入歐盟的可能性。 
Summary: 
The U.S. military leaders believe Ukraine is at its limit and are pessimistic that Ukraine could continue fighting against Russia or reclaim lost territory through combat, a view shared by Ukrainian military leaders.  
  • In an attritional war, the side that could rebuild its military power and fight in the future has the advantage.  
  1. Although Russia suffered heavy casualties, it was better positioned for this war.  
  2. On the other hand, Ukraine's military, economy, and demography deteriorated acutely.  
  • Given the current stalemate, Trump wanted to stop the war as soon as possible and even publicly chastised Zelensky during a face-to-face meeting in February 2025. Ukraine should not expect Europe to help it turn the tide. Therefore, Ukraine should focus on what it has won now and try to negotiate a sustainable peace. 
  • There are seven guidances for Ukraine before negotiating with Russia: 
  1. Trump is the most important player on the negotiation table, and he is unlikely to change his opinion on the war and Putin. Therefore, Zelensky should exercise patience and flatter Trump when possible. 
  2. Ukrainians should accept the reality of a long, contiguous border with a great power. Therefore, Zelensky should review how other countries, such as Mexico, Canada, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Finland, maintain peace with a great power. 
  3. Zelensky must also accept that the peace will not last and will look more like an extended ceasefire or armistice agreement like the Korean War. Therefore, Ukraine should avoid provoking Russia, establish credible deterrence, and maintain vigilance to survive. 
  4. Since Putin will not accept Ukraine's membership in NATO as part of the peace agreement, Zelensky should forget it. 
  5. Zelensky should evaluate Ukraine's best possible security commitments and work with several countries if necessary. 
  6. Zelensky must clarify to Trump that the ceasefire is not a chance for Russia to rearm, and the peace must be sustainable. 
  7. Ukraine's long-term survival depends on Europe. Therefore, the peace agreement must include Ukraine's right to bolster economic ties with the EU or even a possible membership in the EU. 
 
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