作者/Author(s): Michael Albertus and Eugene Finkel 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 03/25/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、俄羅斯、烏克蘭
 

俄羅斯對穀物貿易控制力的日益增強，帶來深遠的地緣政治影響。 

  • 西方試圖透過扼殺俄羅斯的能源貿易來削弱其地緣政治影響力，但卻忽略了更具影響力的穀物貿易。 
  1. 由於西方不想造成全球糧食中斷，因此並不積極制裁俄羅斯出口的穀物。俄羅斯得以繼續出口穀物，賺取戰爭資金。 
  2. 此外，俄羅斯的穀物出口量大幅增加。中東和北非等依靠糧食進口保障國家安全的地區，在俄烏戰爭爆發以來，更加依賴俄羅斯的穀物供應。 
  3. 敘利亞阿薩德政權倒台後，俄羅斯已經停止向敘利亞出口穀物，導致當地經濟陷入危機。如果情況持續下去，恐會造成全球不穩定、糧食不安全和大規模移民。 
  • 西方國家應該了解俄羅斯對占領區的土地政策所造成的威脅和後果，並採取相應行動 
  1. 若西方輕視此議題，烏克蘭將面臨土地所有權的複雜法律和行政衝突。土地問題若無法妥善解決，將衍生更多問題。 
  2. 烏克蘭政府沒有足夠的能力自己處理這個問題。  
  3. 任何俄烏間的和平協議都應防止俄羅斯在占領的烏克蘭領土上單方面改變土地政策。西方國家與國際組織應設立有效機制，監控占領區的土地所有權變動，並制定法律工具來降低俄羅斯土地政策對烏克蘭造成的負面影響。 
  4. 西方應使用各種手段阻止俄羅斯利用糧食危機謀求政治利益，例如懲罰非法從烏克蘭占領區購買穀物的國家，並協助提供替代的穀物來源給有需求的國家。 
Russia's growing control over grain trade presents consequential geopolitical implications. 
  • The West tried diminishing Russia's geopolitical leverage by choking its energy trade but ignored the more potent grain. 
  1. Since the West avoided sanctioning Russian grain to prevent global food disruption, Russia could continue grain trade and finance its war. 
  2. Furthermore, Russian grain exports have grown significantly. Countries depending on food imports for security, such as the Middle East and North Africa, have increased their reliance on Russian grain since the invasion began. 
  3. After the fall of the Assad regime, Russia stopped grain exports to Syria, creating an economic crisis. If the situation persists, it will cause global instability, food insecurity, and mass migration. 
  • The West should recognize the threat and implications of Russia's land policies in occupied Ukraine and respond accordingly. 
  1. If the West underplays this issue, Ukraine will face complicated and conflicting legal and administrative issues regarding land ownership. As a consequence of unresolved land issues, other problems may arise. 
  2. The Ukrainian government does not have sufficient capacity to handle this problem on its own. 
  3. Any future peace agreement should prevent Russia from unilaterally changing the land policies in occupied Ukraine. The West and international organizations should create mechanisms to monitor the land ownership structure in those regions and devise legal instruments to reduce the impact of Russia's land policies on Ukraine. 
  4. The West should also use all available means to stop Russia's ability to create a global food security crisis for political gains, including punishing countries illegally purchasing grain from occupied Ukraine and promoting alternatives to countries needing grain. 
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