作者/Author(s): Michael Albertus and Eugene Finkel 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 03/25/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、俄羅斯、烏克蘭 

 
摘要：
俄羅斯與烏克蘭交戰的方法非常先進，但本質上，這仍是一場領土爭奪戰。土地對俄羅斯而言具有經濟價值，因為俄羅斯的目標是永久佔領目前軍事進駐的區域，並透過農業擴大全球影響力。因此，任何停火協議都必須包含俄羅斯現今占領地區的土地與農作物安排。
  • 領土對一國的政治、經濟和社會權力至關重要，對於贏得常規戰爭更具有決定性意義。烏克蘭東部與南部的土地肥沃，農業價值極高。因此，誰控制這些土地，誰就能獲得巨大的政治權力。 
  • 依據歷史先例，俄羅斯試圖在占領區實施俄國法律，控制並改變這些地區的政治和法律地位。烏克蘭人民只有兩個選擇：接受俄國統治以保住土地所有權，或者抵抗普丁，但失去自己的土地。 
  • 報導指出，與政府有聯繫的俄羅斯寡頭和農業公司已經沒收了許多流離失所或逝世烏克蘭人的土地。 
  • 最終，俄羅斯可以透過新的土地政策，將被佔領的土地轉成事實上的俄羅斯領土。如此一來，俄羅斯就能將穀物出口武器化，進一步轉化為全球影響力，獲得外國的支持。 
  1. 在二十一世紀之前，俄羅斯是穀物進口國，但自2000年代中期以來，俄國為了減少糧食進口，已轉型成為全球最大的穀物出口國之一。 
  2. 對俄羅斯領導人而言，糧食一直是一個重要武器。克里姆林宮曾經用饑荒來制服國內的異議份子。前總統梅德維傑夫（Medvedev）甚至曾宣稱要停止向「不友善」的國家政府供應糧食。俄羅斯也曾建議金磚國家可以交換糧食，並由俄羅斯自己來建立並領導相應機制。 
 
Summary: 
Russia and Ukraine fought using modern methods, but ultimately, it was a contest for valuable land ownership. Land presents economic value for Russia as it aims to convert military occupation into permanent land ownership and expand its global influence through agriculture. Therefore, any ceasefire deal must include the provision of land and crops in the Russian-occupied area.
  • Land is crucial for political, economic, and social power and is decisive for winning conventional wars. Ukrainian land in the eastern and southern parts is highly valuable for agriculture because it is fertile. Therefore, whoever owns and controls those lands will have immense political power. 
  • Following historical precedents, Russia aimed to dominate and change the political and legal status of the occupied territories by imposing Russian laws. Ukrainians had two choices: accept Russian rule and maintain the gains from the land ownership or defy Putin and lose their land forever. 
  • According to reports, Russian oligarchs and agricultural companies with ties to the government confiscated lands belonging to deceased or displaced Ukrainians. 
  • Russia may eventually make occupied lands de facto Russian territory through its land policies. This would allow Russia to weaponize grain exports, turn them into global influence, and obtain foreign support. 
  1. Before the 21st century, Russia was a grain importer. However, it became one of the largest wheat exporters since the mid-2000s as part of its effort to decrease food imports. 
  2. Food was a weapon for Russian leaders. The Kremlin had used famine to subdue domestic dissidents. Former Russian president Medvedev even touted stopping food supplies to "unfriendly" governments. Russia also proposed grain exchange among BRICS nations, where Russia will lead the mechanism. 
 
回上層