作者/Author(s): Daniel Byman and Seth G. Jones 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 03/13/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 防禦、灰色地帶、台灣 


摘要：
中國可能效法俄羅斯的「灰色地帶」戰術，企圖在入侵台灣之前削弱台灣民眾的士氣與對政府的信任。台灣與美國的國防單位已針對中國入侵或封鎖台灣行動制定相應的戰略，但尚未準備充分的灰色地帶反制作為。美國必須協助台灣建立反制中國灰色地帶行動的方法，強化台灣的韌性，否則也會變相鼓勵中國未來繼續對台灣及周邊其他國家採用這種戰術。 

強化韌性 
  • 一個有韌性的國家應具備靈活面對外部壓力的能力。一個有韌性的社會具備自衛、自給自足、抵抗脅迫的能力，並展現出避免及對抗入侵的決心。
  • 烏克蘭在經歷三年多俄羅斯的攻擊與灰色地帶脅迫後，已成為國家韌性的典範。烏國人民的韌性讓其盟國願意持續提供軍事援助，抵抗強大的對手。 
  • 然而，建立韌性的最佳方式是協助一個國家在危機發生前即成功避免危機。一個具備韌性的國家很難被侵略或占領。而且高昂的行動成本也會讓潛在的侵略者打消入侵念頭。 
  • 為了培養國家韌性，各國政府必須進行詳細規劃、分配充足預算、明確定義各部門分工，並強調：
  1. 有組織且協調完善、責任明確的指揮系統 
  2. 完備的法律授權與制度保障 
  3. 有效且高效率的通訊  
  4. 充足的民防措施 
  5. 提升關鍵基礎設施 
  6. 民眾具備強烈的抵抗意志 
  7. 參與非暴力抵抗的準備  
  8. 盟友的大量支援  
  • 政府必須建立強大的法治環境，在危機期間維持社會秩序，避免關鍵基礎設施落入敵方控制，並確保被占領區內有可運作的抵抗體系。 
  • 民眾也必須針對潛在的敵對資訊行動做好準備，並了解自己在危機中的角色。
  • 地方社區需儲備充足的緊急糧食、水、燃料供應，並設置大量的防空避難設施。 
  • 政府必須具備防禦、維護與修復關鍵通訊、能源與運輸系統的能力，並鼓勵民眾積極抵抗外敵入侵。
  • 盟友的支持至關重要，因為他們能夠提供物資、軍事援助與外交支援。因此，一個有韌性的國家必須確保自己擁有廣泛且穩固的盟友與夥伴體系。
Summary: 
China may emulate Russia's gray-zone warfare tactics to diminish Taiwanese civilian morale and public confidence in the government before invading Taiwan. Taiwanese and U.S. defense planners devised strategies for invasion or blockade scenarios but did not prepare much to counter Chinese gray-zone actions. The U.S. must help Taiwan formulate methods to increase Taiwan's resilience and counter Chinese gray-zone actions, or else it will embolden China to use gray-zone tactics against Taiwan and other countries within its proximity. 
Improving Resilience 
  • A resilient country can resist and recover from exogenous pressure. A resilient community can defend itself, provide necessities, defy coercion, and show resolve to avert and survive an invasion. 
  • Ukraine is a role model of resilience after surviving more than 3 years of Russian attacks and gray-zone coercions. Its resilience encouraged its allies to pour military aid and help it to endure against a military giant. 
  • However, the best way to build resilience is to help a country avert crises before they happen. A resilient country is more challenging to invade and occupy. Furthermore, it will discourage potential aggressors from invading due to the high operation costs. 
  • A government must plan in detail, allocate a sufficient budget, and arrange a division of labor to foster resilience, emphasizing:  
  1. Well-organized and well-coordinated command structure with clearly outlined responsibilities 
  2. Competent legal authorities 
  3. Effective and efficient communications 
  4. Sufficient civil defenses 
  5. Reinforced critical infrastructure 
  6. Strong public will to fight 
  7. Preparedness to engage in non-violent resistance 
  8. Abundant support from partners 
  • The government must also establish a sturdy rule of law to maintain order during the crisis, prevent critical infrastructure from falling under foe's control, and ensure the availability of resistance networks in the occupied regions. 
  • The population must also prepare against potential hostile information operations and understand their role during a crisis. 
  • Local communities must store sufficient emergency food, water, and fuel supplies and deploy extensive air raid shelters. 
  • The government must also be able to defend, maintain, and repair critical communication, energy, and transportation systems and motivate its citizens to resist invasion attempts. 
  • Support from allies is crucial because they can provide supplies, military aid, and diplomatic support. Therefore, a resilient country must ensure it has an expansive and deep alliance and partner network. 
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