作者/Author(s): Jennifer Kavanagh and Stephen Wertheim 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 02/25/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 美台關係、軍事、台灣


摘要：
台灣對美國而言確實很重要，但不足以讓美國與中國開戰。美國應盡力阻止中國建立區域霸權，制定新的戰略，確保台灣能夠在美國提供的最低支援下保衛自己。
 聚焦「豪豬戰略」 
  • 台灣目前的防衛能力不足以抵禦中國的進攻。雖然台灣已經投資於進攻型武器平台，但中國軍隊仍能輕易壓制這些能力。因此，台灣的防禦力量仍然不足，必須依賴美國的軍事介入才能續存。 
  • 台灣最佳的防禦方法是落實「豪豬戰略」。雖然台灣在發展「反介入/區域拒止」能力方面已有一定進展，但進展進度過慢且能力仍然不足。 
  • 美國應向施壓台灣提高國防支出並提出明確的軍事援助條件，督促台灣獲得更多自我防衛所需的能力。此外，美國也應該指定台灣為軍售的主要接受者，並協助台灣的國防工業基地。 
  • 台灣也必須改善軍事訓練與徵兵制度，確保擁有足夠的兵力來應對中國的侵略。 
  • 美國應發展新的方法，確保在中國封鎖台灣的情境下，不必派遣美軍也能準確運送補給給台灣。美國可以從強化無人機船隻的運輸能力開始。 
  • 台灣必須改善基礎建設，以確保戰時後勤的順暢運作。同樣地，美國應考慮擴大在台灣周邊基地的軍事裝備儲備，並說服盟友允許這項計畫，以提升美國與盟國對中國軍事行動的應對能力。 

Summary: 
Taiwan does matter to the US, but not enough for the US to go to war with China. The US should prevent China from achieving regional dominance. Therefore, the US needs a new strategy to ensure Taiwan can protect itself with minimal US support. 
Focusing on the Porcupine Strategy 
  • Taiwan's current defense capabilities are insufficient against a Chinese attack. Although Taiwan has invested in offensive platforms, Chinese forces could easily overwhelm these capabilities. Consequently, Taiwan does not have adequate defense and must rely on the US's military intervention for survival. 
  • The best way for Taiwan's defense is to materialize the "porcupine" strategy. Although Taiwan had made some progress in investing in denial capabilities, it was slow and insufficient. 
  • The US could compel Taiwan to procure the capabilities required to be more self-reliant by emphasizing the need to ramp up defense spending and stating the conditions for military assistance. The US should also designate Taiwan as the primary recipient of arms sales and assist Taiwan's defense industrial base. 
  • Taiwan must also improve its military training and conscription policies to generate enough manpower to fend off Chinese invasion. 
  • The US should develop innovative methods to ensure it could send supplies to Taiwan without involving US forces in case of a Chinese blockade scenario. The US could start by enhancing the ability of autonomous drones and ships to carry cargo. 
  •  Taiwan must improve its basic infrastructure to facilitate wartime logistics. Similarly, the US should consider expanding its military equipment stockpile in its bases near Taiwan and convince its allies to allow the effort. 
回上層