作者/Author(s): Jennifer Kavanagh and Stephen Wertheim 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 02/25/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 美台關係、軍事、台灣 


摘要：
台灣問題對美國決策者而言是一個兩難局面。如果美國不介入北京入侵台灣的舉動，將會損害美國的國際信譽，並對其在亞洲的軍事投射能力帶來新的挑戰。然而，美中之間發生武裝衝突的後果恐極為慘重。台灣是一個充滿活力的民主國家，值得保護，但與其在介入或置身事外間舉棋不定，美國應確保台灣有足夠的自衛能力，並在危機發生時從遠方提供協助。此外，美國在這個過程中應維持戰略模糊政策，以避免激怒北京，有效提升地區盟友的防禦能力，並遏制中國的區域擴張企圖。 
第三次世界大戰的代價  
  • 如果台灣落入北京之手，美國將面臨重大的軍事、經濟和信譽挑戰。但是就目前的現狀來看，美國與中國對抗的代價比維持台海現狀還要更高。 
  • 中國可能會藉由控制台灣，確立其在亞洲區域的霸權，並進一步削弱美國的安全與經濟利益。然而，中國獲得的利益比預期的要少。 
  1. 中國需要時間將臺灣打造成適合的軍事行動基地，美國仍有時間集結足夠的軍力來進行反制，阻止中國的霸權企圖。 
  2. 中國雖然可以擴大其軍事投射能力，但程度相對有限，不會影響到美國對印太局勢的威脅評估。
  3. 有人認為，解放軍的潛艦可能繞過美國在東海與南海的水下監視系統。然而，隨著技術進步，美國可以發展更先進的監測能力，而中國亦可建造更安靜的潛艦來規避偵測，且無需依賴台灣作為戰略據點。 
  4. 中國已展現出奪取日本與菲律賓周邊海域的野心，無論台海危機是否發生，這些國家都將持續加強自身防禦，以應對中國的擴張行為。 
  • 美國的經濟影響有限 
  1. 台積電作為全球最大先進半導體製造商，可能落入中國之手，美國可能失去高端半導體的直接供應鏈。然而，台積電的運作仍需依賴美國的智慧財產權與西方零件，即使台積電被中國控制，其生產能力會受到大幅限制。此外，美國已經著手提升本土半導體產能，減少對台灣的依賴。 
  2. 對美國商業航運的威脅也不會有太大變化。再者，如果中國擾亂海上貿易，其經濟也會受損，更遑論美國還有很多繞過南海的選擇。
  • 美國的緊密盟友已馬不停蹄地強化自身防禦，以應對中國的軍事擴張，美國應停止將台灣防衛與自身國際聲譽綁定的觀念。 
Summary: 
Taiwan poses a dilemma to US policymakers. If Beijing invades Taiwan and the US does not intervene, it would damage the US's credibility and create new challenges to US military projection in Asia. However, the US may find that the costs of an armed conflict with China will have catastrophic consequences. Taiwan is a vibrant democracy worth protecting, but instead of choosing between intervening or staying out, the US should ensure Taiwan has sufficient self-defense ability and assist from a distance if a crisis occurs. Furthermore, the US must retain its strategic ambiguity regarding aiding Taiwan's defense to avoid provoking Beijing, boost regional allies' self-defense capabilities, and prevent China's quest for regional dominance. 
Costs of World War III 
  • ​​​​​​​If Taiwan falls to Beijing, the US will experience significant military, economic, and reputational challenges. However, for now, it is more costly for the US to fight China than to preserve Taiwan's status quo. 
  • China may attain regional hegemony in Asia and undermine the US's security and economic interests by controlling Taiwan. However, the gains for China are less than expected. 
  1. China will take time to develop Taiwan as a suitable base for military operations. The US has time to mount enough counterbalancing force to prevent China's bid for hegemony. 
  2. China could expand its military projection, but the increment would be small and would not significantly change the US's threat perception. 
  3. Some may argue PLA submarines could bypass the US's undersea surveillance in the East and South China Seas. However, with technological progress, the US could develop better monitoring capabilities, and China could build quieter submarines to circumvent US detection without using Taiwan as a launching platform. 
  4. China has already demonstrated its appetite to seize Japanese and Phillippine's outlying maritime territories. Regardless of Taiwan's contingency, they will invest in their security to counter China's assertiveness. 
  • The economic consequences to the US are also minimal. 
  1. Taiwan's TSMC, the world's largest advanced chip producer, may fall to China. The US may lose its access to advanced semiconductors, but the company could not function without the US's intellectual property and Western components. Furthermore, the US is on track to increase indigenous semiconductor production and reduce reliance on Taiwan. 
  2. The threat to the US's commercial shipping will not change much. Furthermore, China's economy will also suffer if it disrupts maritime trade. Moreover, the US has plenty of options to bypass the South China Sea. 
  • Since the US's close partners are already boosting their defense to counter Chinese aggression, the US should end the belief that its reputation lies in the defense of Taiwan. 
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