作者/Author(s): Tetiana Kyselova and Yuna Potomkina 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 03/01/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords:和平協議、烏克蘭、俄烏戰爭 


摘要：
美俄官員於沙烏地阿拉伯會晤，有望共同討論如何結束長達三年的俄烏戰爭，但烏克蘭並未參與其中。澤倫斯基總統擔憂，川普對俄羅斯的妥協政策可能促使普京重返談判桌，但這樣的和平或許難以長久。特朗普的談判方式類似於俄羅斯併吞克里米亞及烏克蘭東部部分地區後的《明斯克協議》，為頓巴斯地區的停火和政治解決方案建立基礎。然而，2022 年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的行動證明，《明斯克協議》無法阻止俄羅斯。雖然《明斯克協議》最終邁向失敗，但美國仍可從中汲取經驗，制定更有效的和平方案，確保俄烏間長久的和平。 

不合理的《明斯克協議》 
  • 在簽訂《明斯克協議》期間，俄羅斯表面上同意進行談判，但卻故意拖延和平協議的細節，成功在簽署《明斯克協議》後的幾個月內繼續對烏克蘭發動攻擊。如今，俄羅斯可能在當前談判中故技重施。
  • 此次談判忽略了烏克蘭的利益，因為烏克蘭如今處於弱勢，盟友及其他國家急於結束衝突，導致烏克蘭在簽署協議後持續遭受更多損失。
  • 因此，烏克蘭人民對《明斯克協議》十分不滿，因為他們被迫接受不合理的條件，並作出不合邏輯的妥協。 
  • 《明斯克協議》建議俄羅斯軍隊離開被佔領的頓內次克和盧甘斯克部分地區，以解決它們的政治地位，擁有更大的自治權。 
  1. 俄羅斯利用這個機會破壞烏克蘭的民主和領土完整，在 2014 年於仍受俄軍控制的地區舉行選舉，為進一步擴大影響力奠定基礎。 
  2. 烏克蘭的合作夥伴認為這些選舉不合法，也不符合《明斯克協議》的條件。雖然俄羅斯聲稱沒有在這些地區駐軍，但頓內次克和盧甘斯克仍在俄羅斯的控制之下，並於 2018 年再次舉行違反協議的選舉。 

Summary: 
U.S. and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia to discuss a potential end to the 3-year-long Russo-Ukraine War but without Ukraine. President Zelensky is concerned that Trump's accommodation policy toward Russia may bring Putin to the negotiation table, but the peace may not last long. Trump's approach to negotiation is akin to the Minsk process after Russia annexed Crimea and other parts of Ukraine, which laid down conditions for a ceasefire and political resolution in Donbas. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 demonstrated the inability of the Minsk Agreement to stop Russian aggression. Despite its failure, the Minsk process can provide a valuable lesson for the U.S. in formulating a better peace deal to ensure a durable peace. 
The Unreasonable Minsk Agreement 
  • During the Minsk process, Russia agreed to negotiate but delayed the details of the peace agreement, allowing it to continue fighting Ukraine months after concluding the first Minsk agreement. Russia may replicate the Minsk process in the current negotiation. 
  • The negotiation ignored Ukraine's interests because Ukraine is in a frail state. Other parties involved, including Ukraine's allies, rushed through the process to end the conflict swiftly, causing Ukraine to suffer further losses even after signing the agreement. 
  • Therefore, Ukrainians resented and rejected the Minsk Agreement because they had to accept it involuntarily and made illogical compromises. 
  • The Minsk Agreement recommended that Russian forces leave occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk so that the regions could resolve their political statuses and have greater autonomy. 
  1. Russia used this opportunity to undermine Ukraine's democracy and territorial integrity after these regions conducted elections while still under Russian occupation in 2014. 
  2. Ukraine's partners view the elections as illegitimate and not coherent with the conditions in the Minsk I agreement. Although Russia asserted that it did not have troops in those regions, Donetsk and Luhansk remained under Russia's control and conducted another non-compliant election in 2018. 
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