作者/Author(s): Zack Cooper 

網站來源/Source: The Dispatch 

日期/Date: 03/02/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 防禦、外交、川普、台灣 
 

摘要:
川普在他的第一任期內對台灣很熱情,但現在對台灣變得更挑剔,對中國態度則更為親切。對台灣來說,樂觀的說法是川普的國安團隊官員相當支持台灣,其中一些人甚至公開表示應在台灣議題上採取戰略清晰的立場,並承諾華府將持續支持台灣。然而,川普突然轉變太電,開始公開表達對台灣奪走美國半導體產業的不滿,質疑美國是否需要協防台灣,甚至威脅對台灣晶片企業徵收關稅。川普的態度轉變,可能是受到其與中國有厚實商業關係的顧問影響。他甚至邀請習近平出席他的就職典禮,而抖音(TikTok)的執行長也在場。
  •  川普外交政策的不可預測性,與拜登的方針形成對比
  • 可預測的外交政策可以讓盟友和敵人放心,嚇阻重大衝突的發生 
  • 然而,敵人可能會利用這個機會來測試美國對衝突升級的容忍度,同時可能導致盟友過度依賴美國的防衛承諾,進而引發「同盟困境」。 
  • 川普的不可預測性對台灣有一定程度影響 
  1. 台灣必須展現對抗解放軍軍事威脅的決心,得採購更多美國武器,這可能是讓川普滿意的結果
  2. 然而,台灣的努力可能仍不足以打動川普。他要求台灣將國防支出提高至 GDP 的 10%,但近期的國內政治情勢表明,這一目標很難實現
  3. 川普的一些顧問甚至威脅,如果台灣政府不加強防禦,美國將放棄對台灣的支持 
  • ​​​​​​​然而,川普政府的警告可能導致台灣放棄努力,對北京作出讓步與妥協,更別提多數台灣民眾本就對美國協防台灣的承諾存有疑慮。此外,北京可能趁此機會測試川普協防台灣的決心。 
Summary: 
Trump was warm towards Taiwan during his first term, but now, he seems more critical of Taiwan and cordial toward China. On the bright side for Taiwan, Trump had many Taiwan supporters within his national security ranks. Some even publicly commented on the need for strategic clarity on the Taiwan issue and declared the administration's continuous support. Nevertheless, Trump dropped a bombshell by expressing his distaste toward Taiwan for snatching U.S. semiconductor businesses, doubting the need to aid Taiwan, and threatening tariffs on Taiwanese chip companies. Trump's attitude change may be affected by his advisors with profound business ties to China. He even invited Xi to his inauguration, which TikTok's CEO attended. 
  • Trump's behavior indicated his unpredictability approach toward foreign policy, contradicting Biden's approach. 
  • Predictable foreign policy could assure allies and foes while deterring major conflicts. However, adversaries may use this opportunity to test the U.S. tolerance towards conflict escalation, and allies may free-ride on U.S. defense commitments, leading to an alliance dilemma. 
  • However, it is unknown whether Trump is genuinely unpredictable or it is just his bargaining method. Yet, for his approach to work, he must credibly threaten his allies, which adversaries may pry on to test the U.S. diplomatic strength. 
  • Trump's unpredictability has some implications for Taiwan. 
  1. Taiwan must show its seriousness in countering the PLA's military threat. Therefore, it will procure more U.S. weapons, which may please Trump. 
  2. However, Taiwan's effort may be insufficient to convince Trump. Trump demanded Taiwan to spend at least 10% of GDP on defense, but recent domestic political reasons impede this possibility.
  3. Some of Trump's advisors also threaten to abandon Taiwan if the government does not step up its defenses. 
  • However, the new administration's warnings may compel the Taiwanese to give up and give concessions to Beijing, particularly since most Taiwanese doubt the U.S.'s assurance to aid Taiwan. Furthermore, Beijing may use this opportunity to test Trump's resolve towards Taiwan.