作者/Author(s): Aaron L. Friedberg 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 01/06/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、關稅


摘要：
對川普而言，關稅是解決一切問題的萬靈丹，他甚至在就職前就威脅要提高對美國最大貿易夥伴的關稅，以促進國家利益和振興美國製造業。然而，川普必須了解，關稅不會迫使北京政府放棄其經濟模式，而且北京也有應對美國關稅的替代方案。 
  • 美國關稅的主要目標是迫使中國停止出口毒品前體物質，並改革其列寧式經濟模式。 
  • 如果北京遵從美國的要求，可能會削弱中共對中國社會和經濟的控制，尤其是自 COVID-19 後，中國'尚未能從經濟衰退中恢復。  
  • 在選擇有限的情況下，中國加碼補貼政策，並加強其以出口為導向的製造業部門。然而，中國的做法可能會摧毀已開發國家與發展中國家的現有產業。 
  • 此外，中國可能利用其在新興產業原材料上的優勢，切斷其他國家獲取這些資源的管道，並增加敵對國家的貿易依賴。 
  • 關稅在捍衛並對抗一個具威脅性的中國及其經濟政策時至關重要。然而，如果川普對盟友與對手一視同仁，選擇全面徵收關稅，可能會錯失改變中國政策的機會。 
Summary: 
For Trump, tariffs are a panacea for resolving any issues. Therefore, he threatened to raise tariffs on the U.S.'s largest trade partners even before his inauguration to advance his national interests and revive the U.S. manufacturing sector. However, Trump must understand that tariffs will not force the Beijing government to abandon its economic model and that Beijing has alternatives to mitigate the U.S. tariffs. 
  •  The primary aims of the U.S. tariffs are to compel China to stop exporting drug precursors and reform its mercantilist-Lenninist economic approach.  
  • If Beijing complies with the U.S. requests, it could undermine the CCP's control of China's society and economy, especially since it failed to recover from the economic downturn since the COVID-19 pandemic.  
  • With limited options, China doubled down on its subsidy practices and export-oriented manufacturing sector. Yet, China's practice may destroy existing industries in advanced and developing economies. 
  • Furthermore, China may use its dominance over raw materials for new industrial sectors to cut other countries' access to these items and increase trade reliance on hostile state actors. 
  • Tariffs are important to defend and counter an ominous China and its mercantilist policies. However, Trump may squander the opportunity to change China's policy if he follows through with a universal tariff on allies and adversaries. 
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