
作者/Author(s): Adrian Karatnycky
網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy
日期/Date:01/08/2025
關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、俄羅斯、歐洲
摘要:
川普誓言在上任後盡快結束俄烏戰爭,不管其他國家是否接受和平協議。
- 川普的立場矛盾且難以預測。如果俄羅斯拒絕和平協議,美國可能會增加對烏克蘭的軍事支援。然而,川普及其顧問希望減少美國對烏克蘭的援助,並讓歐洲的北約成員國承擔更多歐洲安全的責任。
- 在美國可能撤回對烏克蘭援助的'情況下,歐洲國家必須增加國防開支。然而,多數歐洲國家預算不足,如果削減社會福利預算,增加國防預算,可能引發國內政治不穩定。
- 在這種困境下,俄羅斯有充分的理由拒絕任何和平協議,並讓西方疲憊不堪,最終停止對烏克蘭的資助。
- 由於官僚體系的限制,西方領導人大多不願直接使用被沒收的俄羅斯資產來支持烏克蘭,僅僅將利息貸款給烏克蘭。然而,美國的援助可能減少,歐洲國家不排除動用這些資產的可能性。
- 然而,動用俄羅斯資產可能削弱美元和歐元,甚至引發美國和歐盟的金融不穩定,西方必須先解決這些疑慮。
- 中國的反應同樣令人擔憂。中國持有大量外匯儲備,如果他們拋售大量外匯儲備,可能會衝擊一些西方貨幣和國債。
- 西方國家可在下列條件下,合理地沒收俄羅斯資產:
- 目標國發動軍事攻擊並佔領了某個聯合國會員國的領土。
- 目標國對另一個主權國發動無端攻擊。
- 目標國吞併了其他國家的領土。
- 上述條件對於入侵台灣的行動沒有任何直接影響,因為台灣沒有作為聯合國會員的保護機制。然而,這可能是西方國家發出的強烈訊號,證明他們阻止任何改變國際公認邊界的企圖,以及維持國際規則的決心。
Summary:
Trump vowed to end the Russo-Ukraine War as soon as possible after his inauguration, regardless of whether the parties involved will accept the peace deal.
- Trump's position is ambivalent and unpredictable. If Russia rejects a peace deal, the US may increase its military support for Ukraine. However, Trump and his advisors hoped to reduce US assistance to Ukraine and let European NATO members take up the burden of European security.
- European countries must increase their defense spending, especially if the US withdraws its aid for Ukraine. However, most European countries face budgetary constraints and risk domestic political instability if they increase their military budget by sacrificing social spending.
- Given the predicaments, Russia has all the reasons to reject any peace deal and let the West grow weary and eventually stop financing Ukraine.
- Due to bureaucratic constraints, Western leaders are reluctant to use confiscated Russian hard currency to support Ukraine and only use the interest generated from money as a loan to Ukraine.
- However, they recently did not exclude the possibility of tapping these reserves to be used against its owner, especially when facing the possibility of reduced US support.
- Yet, using the Russian assets may weaken the US dollar and Euro or cause financial instability in the US and the EU. Therefore, the West must first address these concerns.
- China's reaction is also concerning because it holds many foreign currency reserves. If China sells off its foreign currency reserves, it could undermine some Western currencies and government bonds.
- The West could justify the confiscation of Russian assets if it meets the following conditions:
- The target launched a military attack and occupied the territory of a UN member state.
- The target launched an unprovoked attack on another sovereign state.
- The target annexed a territory of another country.
- The above conditions do not have any direct implications in a Taiwan invasion scenario because Taiwan does not have the protection as a UN member. However, it could signal a strong message to deter any attempts to change internationally recognized borders and the West's resolve to maintain international rules.