俄羅斯和烏克蘭可能同意在 2025 年停火,但無法保證和平

作者/Author(s): Paul Goble
網站來源/Source: The Jamestown Foundation
日期/Date: 12/13/2024
關鍵字/Keywords: 停火、俄羅斯、烏克蘭
摘要:
俄羅斯和烏克蘭都很常根據其戰場表現而改變長期衝突的戰略評估。
- 俄烏戰況顯示永久停火不切實際,也不可能達成。較有可能的最佳結果是停戰,讓雙方重建並擴大軍力。
- 普丁可能已經意識到,想完全吞併烏克蘭是不可能的,甚至會產生反效果。因此,他很可能會利用目前的結果來羞辱西方,並測試西方為烏克蘭提供安全保證的決心。
- 澤倫斯基也應該認清收復失土是不可能的任務,他應該盡力讓西方各國給予最大的安全保障,加強烏克蘭國防力量。
- 俄羅斯和烏克蘭的談判立場將隨著戰場發展和2025年的國內政治而改變。
- 烏克蘭的作戰能力不太可能有顯著改善。
- 雖然克里姆林宮聲稱群眾支持戰爭,但俄羅斯人可能會因為高傷亡和福利減少而厭戰。
- 烏克蘭也面臨與俄羅斯類似的問題。此外,許多烏克蘭人正在逃離自己的國家,動員工作並不順利。
- 國際社會也因長期的衝突而感到疲憊,尤其是當俄烏衝突傷害到本國經濟時。因此,它允許右翼民粹主義者和孤立主義者贏得選舉。西方希望盡快解決衝突,以節約資源。
- 然而,真的要停火並不容易。
- 俄羅斯認為自己佔有優勢,將繼續戰鬥,俄羅斯的資源充足,而西方對烏克蘭的支持正在減少。
- 俄羅斯可能同意停火,以阻止經濟不斷惡化。若真的達成停戰協議,西方可以將重點轉向其他地區,俄羅斯得以重建其軍事實力,並在前蘇聯國家展開其他行動。
- 烏克蘭不願意與俄羅斯談判,因為西方可能會對俄羅斯做出讓步,反過頭來減少提供給基輔的安全保證。
Summary:
Russia and Ukraine frequently changed their strategic assessment of their ongoing conflict according to their battlefield performance.
- The state of the war suggests that a permanent ceasefire is unattainable. The best possible outcome is a truce, allowing both sides to rebuild and expand their forces.
- Putin may realize a complete annexation of Ukraine is impossible and counterproductive. Therefore, it will most likely use its current results to humiliate the West and test its resolve to provide security guarantees to Ukraine.
- Zelensky should apprehend the impossible task of reclaiming lost territories and try to obtain as many security guarantees as possible from the West to strengthen its national defense.
- Russia and Ukraine's negotiation position will change according to battlefield development and domestic politics in 2025.
- Ukraine is unlikely to have significant improvements in its combat.
- Although the Kremlin claimed public support for the war efforts, Russians may grow weary of the war due to high casualties and reduced welfare.
- Ukraine faces similar problems to Russia. Furthermore, many Ukrainians are fleeing their country, impeding mobilization efforts.
- The international community also felt fatigued from the prolonged conflict, especially when it hurt their economy. Consequently, it allowed right-wing populists and isolationists to win elections. The West hopes to settle the conflict as soon as possible to conserve its resources.
- Yet, achieving a ceasefire is challenging.
- Russia believes it has the advantage and will continue to fight because it has sufficient resources while Western support for Ukraine is dwindling.
- However, Russia may agree to a ceasefire to stop the deterioration of its economy. Furthermore, if a truce is in place, the West can shift its focus to other areas, allowing Russia to rebuild its military power and conduct other operations in former Soviet countries.
- Ukraine is reluctant to negotiate with Russia because the West may make concessions to Russia and reduce its security guarantees to Kyiv.