作者/Author(s): Eric Gomez 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 06/13/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事 


摘要：
拜登於四月時簽署了幾項緊急軍事支出法案，其中包括針對印太地區的台灣援助法案，旨在解決美國對台軍售的積壓問題，表明美國決心反擊中國的侵略行為。然而，該法案可能無法完全解決積壓問題。
  • 台灣依靠美國的對外軍售（FMS）制度採購美國從零開始製造的武器。超過 1400 萬美元的銷售額必須獲得國會批准，因此更有可能受到官僚主義的阻礙，導致進展緩慢。然而在採購同樣的美國武器時，台灣往往要比其他國家等更久。 
  • 交付延遲情形在承平時期影響不大，但在當前台海局勢下卻變得很危險。台灣需要大量彈藥來應對中國可能的入侵行動。然而台灣從收到最初的 FMS 通知到收到訂單可能需要 10 年左右的時間。 
  • 美國的官僚主義可能是造成這一問題的原因之一，而台灣的立法障礙也延遲了其與美國國防公司契約最終確定的過程。不過 FMS 流程缺乏透明度，很難找出台灣武器積壓的根本原因。 
  • COVID-19 和俄烏危機對美國防務工業基礎造成的壓力，加劇了美國對台灣的武器交付積壓問題，雙方對類似武器的需求很高。 
  • 新的台灣援助法案使得使用總統撥款權 (PDA)更順暢，能美國庫存中立即轉移現有武器到其他國家。然而，台灣的大部分積壓涉及不在美國庫中或不符合台灣需求的武器。 
  • 雖然美國可以通過 PDA 轉移一些台灣需要的武器，但如果台灣已經收到了國防公司已簽約但仍在生產階段的武器，但是雙重購買也允許台灣在危機期間儲備過多的彈藥。 
  • PDA 可能效果有限，但它可以為台灣提供更多的飛彈和防禦系統。然而台灣不願意採用不對稱防禦，因為目前的 FMS 申請更偏好傳統平台。美國可以利用 PDA 暗示不對稱防禦的重要性，並交付FMS 無法銷售的相關能力。 
 
Summary: 
Biden signed several emergency military spending bills last April, including the Taiwan aid bill focusing on the Indo-Pacific. The bill aims to address the arms sales backlog from the US to Taiwan, signaling the determination to counter China's aggression in the region. However, the bill may not fix the backlog fully. 
  • Taiwan relied on Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to procure US weapons which were manufactured from scratch. Sales of more than 14 million USD must be approved by Congress, meaning it is subjected to bureaucratic hurdles and slow. However, when procuring the same US weapons, Taiwan often waits longer than other countries. 
  • Although a delay is trivial during peacetime, it is dangerous in the current situation in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan would need much ammunition to counter China's possible invasion. However, Taiwan may take about 10 years from the initial FMS notification to receiving their orders. 
  • While the US bureaucracy may contribute to this problem, Taiwan's legislative obstacles also hamper the contract-finalizing processes with US defense companies. However, it is hard to identify the root cause of Taiwan's weapons backlog due to the lack of transparency in FMS processes. 
  • The stress on the US defense industrial base because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian Crisis exacerbates weapons delivery to Taiwan due to the high demand for similar weapons. 
  • The new Taiwan aid bill smoothens the use of the presidential drawdown authority (PDA) to transfer existing weapons from US stockpiles immediately to other countries. However, much of Taiwan's backlog involves weapons not in the US inventory or incompatible with Taiwan's needs. 
  • Although the US could transfer some weapons Taiwan requires through PDA, the US may face contract problems with defense companies if Taiwan already receives weapons that the defense companies are contracted but are still in the production phase. Yet, double-dipping also allows Taiwan to stockpile excess ammunition during a crisis. 
  • PDA may not be effective, but it could provide Taiwan with more missiles and defense systems. However, Taiwan is reluctant to adopt asymmetric defense as its current FMS applications favor traditional platforms. The US could use PDA to hint at the importance of asymmetric defense to Taiwan and deliver the relevant capabilities not sold through the FMS. 
 
回上層