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Bloomberg: 台灣戰爭的經濟混亂將影響半導體產業 


作者/Author(s): Hal Brands 

原文來源/Source: Bloomberg  彭博新聞社 

日期/Date: 06/24/2022 

主題/Key Topics : Economy 


摘要:
除了與美國的戰略意義和共同的民主價值觀外，台灣在全球半導體供應鏈中也扮演著不可或缺的角色。因此，中國對台灣的入侵將引起超過俄烏戰爭的全球經濟衝擊，促使美國急於保衛台灣。 

迫在眉睫的強制統一？ 
  • 解放軍在絕對數量上以巨大的規模超過了台灣的防禦能力，使中國獲得了軍事優勢。 
  • 習近平實現「和平」統一的機會正在迅速消失，因為台灣人不再渴望根據北京的條件實現統一。 
  • 中國還面臨阻礙長期增長的人口和經濟問題。
  • 如果和平手段失敗，不滿的大國傾向於使用武力來確保其國家目標。 
台海戰爭的後果： 
  • 如果美國和日本干預，這將是三個最大經濟體的鬥爭。 
  • 它將威脅到關鍵的海上航線，從而危及這個經濟最活躍的地區。 
  • 無論是作為政策選擇還是戰爭的結果，美國和中國都將加速經濟脫鉤。 
  • 美國及其最親密的盟友可能會制裁中國的能源、金融和貿易。 
  • 直接軍事對抗、資訊戰和顛覆政權行動的可能性更高。 
  • 中國的經濟狀況將比美國更糟，但世界將經歷技術供應鏈的重大破壞，因為台灣生產世界上大多數先進的半導體。 
  • 如果中國控制了台灣的半導體產業，它將在數字霸權上取代美國。 
  • 如果台灣的半導體產業遭到破壞，由於製造和運輸的大規模中斷，全球經濟將出現緊急情況。
  • 美國正試圖將先進的半導體產業轉移到美國，但它尚未作出重大貢獻。 
  • 如果美國及其盟友未能阻止中國的入侵，他們可能需要評估財務、人力和戰略成本。
Summary: 
Apart from strategic significance and shared democratic values with the US, Taiwan has an integral role in the global semiconductor supply chain. Therefore, China’s invasion of Taiwan will cause a global economic shock that outweighs the Russo-Ukraine War, prompting the US to rush to Taiwan’s defense. 
 
An imminent forced reunification? 
  • PLA outgunned Taiwan’s defensive ability by an enormous scale in absolute numbers, giving China a military advantage. 
  • Xi’s chance for “peaceful” reunification is fading fast since the Taiwanese no longer yearn for reunification based on Beijing’s conditions. 
  • China also faces demographic and economic problems which hamper long-term growth. 
  • Dissatisfied powers are prone to use force to secure their national objectives if peaceful means fail. 
The Consequences of War at Taiwan Strait: 
  • If the US and Japan intervened, it would be a fight involving the three largest economies. 
  • It will jeopardize the most economically dynamic region by threatening crucial sea lanes.  
  • The US and China will accelerate economic decoupling either as a policy option or a consequence of the war.
  • The US and its closest allies may sanction China’s energy, finances, and trade. 
  • A higher probability of direct military confrontation, cyber warfare, and subversion campaigns. 
  • China will fare worse economically than the US, but the world will experience significant disruption in the technological supply chain since Taiwan manufactures most of the world’s advanced semiconductors. 
  • If China controls Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, it will supersede the US in digital supremacy. 
  • If Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is destroyed, a global economic emergency will occur due to massive disruption in manufacturing and shipment. 
  • The US is attempting to move the advanced semiconductor industry to the US, but it has yet to contribute significantly.  
  • The US and its allies may need to evaluate the financial, human, and strategic costs if they fail to prevent China’s invasion. 
 
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