編輯器
FA: 入侵是不會傳染的 

作者/Author(s): Oriana Skylar Mastro 

原文來源/Source: 外交事務》 Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 03/03/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Grand Strategy, Economic 


摘要:
悲觀觀點的學者將俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭與中國強制統一台灣的可能性增加聯繫起來。然而,作者認為,國內制約因素阻止了習近平在 2025 年之前入侵台灣,而外部因素在習近平的算計中發揮了次要作用 

制裁威脅不會阻止中國
  •  中國領導人預測,採取行動後的經濟成本會很高,但還可以承受 
  • 中國自給自足的能力及其在全球供應鏈中的核心作用將使制裁無效 
  • 對中國貿易夥伴的損害可能比對中國更嚴重。但,中國預計受到的制裁會比俄羅斯更輕 
台灣的微妙處境 
  • 烏克蘭對美國的作用和重要性與台灣不同 
  • 美國只向烏克蘭提供了武器,沒有提供軍事援助。然而,拜登一再承諾,如果中國入侵,美國將對台灣進行防禦 
  • 中國戰略家認為美國會信守諾言,但不確定美軍的動員速度和規模 
  • 如果美國真的出兵援助烏克蘭,中國不僅可以分析美軍的實力,還會懷疑美國能否在兩條戰線上打仗 
時機還未成熟 
  • 中國正在減少對西方的技術依賴,以減輕脫鉤的影響
  • 如果中國在烏克蘭局勢尚未結束之前入侵台灣,世界其他國家將把這兩個問題聯繫在一起,破壞中國對台灣作為中國不可分割一部分的主張 
  • 如果中國現在入侵台灣,西方可能會認為其創建一個獨裁軸心並攻擊民主。因此,民主國家將聯合起來反對中國 
  • 習近平只有在認為兩棲入侵能夠成功並有利於他的歷史功績時才會選擇入侵台灣 

Summary: 
Pessimist scholars linked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the increased possibility of China’s forced unification of Taiwan. However, the author argues that domestic constraints dissuaded Xi Jinping from invading Taiwan before 2025, and external facets played a minor role in Xi’s calculus. 

The threat of sanctions won’t deter China: 
  • Chinese leaders predicted the economic cost would be high but bearable. 
  • China’s ability to self-suffice and its central role in the global supply chain will render sanctions ineffective.  
  • The damage to China’s trade partners may be more severe than to China. Therefore, it expects a lighter sanction compared to Russia. 
The delicate position of Taiwan: 
  • Ukraine’s role and importance to the US differ from Taiwan. 
  • The US only provided weapons to Ukraine and not military assistance. However, Biden repeatedly pledged to Taiwan’s defense if China invades. 
  • Chinese strategists assume the US will stick to its words but are uncertain about US defense forces’ mobilization speed and scale. 
  • If the US indeed sent troops to assist Ukraine, China not only can analyze the strength of US forces but will also doubt whether the US can fight wars on two fronts. 
It is not time yet
  • China is progressing toward reducing technology dependence on the West to dampen the repercussion of decoupling. 
  • If China invades Taiwan before the Ukrainian situation is unconcluded, the rest of the world will link the two issues together and undermine China’s claim of Taiwan as an inalienable part of China. 
  • The West may perceive a creation of an axis of autocrats and attack on democracy if China invades Taiwan now. Consequently, democracies will rally against China. 
  • Xi will only invade when he thinks the amphibious invasion can succeed and will benefit his legacy.