作者/Author(s): Agathe Demarais 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 11/18/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、財政、俄羅斯、美元
 

摘要：
金磚國家峰會在喀山舉行期間，普丁提出了金磚國家共同貨幣的概念，試圖表明俄羅斯沒有與世隔絕。然而，在金磚國家成員中，只有俄羅斯對建立金磚國家金融體系抱有高度熱情，其他成員並不熱衷於此。不過，喀山峰會仍為大國全球金融領域競爭開闢了新的舞台。 
  • 俄羅斯面臨西方的共同制裁包圍，只能試圖建立一個免受美國或歐盟影響的替代金融體系。 
  • 金磚國家組織成為俄羅斯推動其提案的平台，內容包括支付、清算、再保險、信用評級、跨境交易及數位貨幣機制。 
  • 俄羅斯的提案讓金磚國家成員能互相直接支付，不再需要透過西方中介。
  • 其他金磚國家成員也可能支持金磚國家金融系統的理由： 
  1. 巴西總統盧拉對於必須使用美元進行貿易和儲備感到不滿，他認為巴西的財政命運與美聯儲貨幣政策息息相關。 
  2. 有些會員國不是美國制裁的目標，但與受制裁國家有大量貿易往來，擔心自己會成為二次制裁的受害者。 
  3. 新的數位支援金融系統可能成為政府未來的武器。
  • 然而，除了俄羅斯以外，其他金磚國家成員對於投入該倡議仍存猶豫： 
  1. 只有俄羅斯直接受到西方金融制裁的打擊。其他成員國並未面臨類似處境，有些成員國甚至已具備繞過制裁的獨立機制，抑或希望避免與西方國家對立。 
  2. 其中一項倡議「金磚之橋」（BRICS Bridge）旨在推動數位貨幣交易，但前提是所有成員國需擁有數位貨幣機制。目前只有中國具備流通數位貨幣的能力，但實施了嚴格的資本管制。如果中國不參與，金磚之橋將無法實現。
  3. 貿易失衡和政治分歧也妨礙了金磚之橋的進展。 
  • 西方應意識到全球貿易體系正在分裂。雖然金磚國家的替代貨幣系統尚未構成嚴重威脅，但非西方的替代金融系統在未來可能吸引更多夥伴，進一步加速全球金融秩序碎片化。 

Summary: 
During the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Putin teased the idea of a BRICS common currency to show that Russia is not secluded from the world. Yet, among BRICS members, only Russia is highly keen on creating a BRICS financial system, while other members do not share Putin's urgency. Nevertheless, the Kazan summit opened up a new arena for great power competition in global finance. 
  • Due to coordinated Western sanctions, Russia is enthusiastic about creating an alternative financial network insulated from the US or European Union's influences.  
  • BRICS offers Russia a platform to advance its proposal, which includes payment, clearance, reinsurance, credit rating, cross-border transactions, and digital currency mechanisms. 
  • Russia's proposal allows BRICS members to make payments directly with one another without going through Western intermediaries. 
  • Other BRICS members may have reasons to support a BRICS financial system: 
  1. Brazilian President Lula was frustrated about the need to use USD for trade and foreign reserves, linking the fate of Brazil's finances with the US Federal Reserve's monetary policies. 
  2. Some members are not targets of the US sanctions but fear becoming victims of secondary sanctions due to high trade with sanctioned countries. 
  3. A new digital-supported financial network could allow governments to weaponize the system in the future. 
  • However, except for Russia, BRICS members are reluctant to devote themselves to the initiative: 
  1. Only Russia became a direct target of Western financial sanctions. Other members do not share similar concerns, already independent mechanisms to circumvent the sanctions, or want to avoid offending their Western counterparts. 
  2. One of the initiatives, the BRICS Bridge for digital currency trading, could only function if all members had their digital currencies. Currently, only China has the mechanism to circulate digital currencies, but it has stringent capital controls. The BRICS Bridge will fail without China's participation. 
  3. Trade imbalances and political disagreements also hinder the progress of the BRICS Bridge. 
  • The West should realize that the global trade system is fracturing. Although the BRICS alternative currency system does not pose a severe threat, alternative non-Western financial systems are attractive in the future, catalyzing the fragmentation of the global financial order. 
 
 
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