作者/Author(s): Jeremy Wallace 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 11/04/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 中國研究

摘要：

北京政府自1980年代開始公開官方數據，但自從習近平上任以來，這些數據越來越難找到。 

  • 隨著地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，中國很容易被誤解，或成為煽動敵意的代罪羔羊。 
  • 在中國進行田野調查變得更加危險和昂貴。此外，中國當地的言論自由受到限制，資訊品質不斷下降。高階官員也可能因為抨擊政策決定或其他最高決策者遭「大清洗」，更不願意對外分享意見。 
  • 政府也會審查與官方說法不一的經濟數據指標。
  • 中國新推出的國家安全法持續加深中國研究人員的恐懼，讓他們對彼此或外界產生猜疑。
  • 中共高官不斷吹噓漂亮的經濟數據，凸顯政治成就，但往往忽略了其他令人憂慮的問題，導致習近平必須使用更激進的手段來解決這些問題。習近平的鐵腕政策導致外國投資和與他國往來的機會銳減，外界更難了解中國的現況。 
  • 中國在全球舞台佔據重要地位，了解中國是各國重要的議題。即使資訊可能不完整、受限或相互矛盾，仍有其他方法可以研究中國。 
  1. 北京政府和中國共產黨發布的政策文件、演講及其他官方資訊相對容易獲得，但研究者不應在不了解其文詞和歷史背景的情況下過度解讀這些內容。 
  2. 中央政府、國家統計局、其他部委、地方政府和數據公司也會發布中國的統計數據，但是公部門可能會偽造部分數字。 
  3. 中國市場、公司文件和媒體也可能是可信的資料來源。雖然政府或黨會壓制特定議題，但總有一些蛛絲馬跡可追尋。 
  4. 衛星影像和社群媒體也可以揭露中國內部的真實情況。 
 
Summary: 
The Beijing government started publicizing official data in the 1980s, but these data have become increasingly difficult to access since Xi Jinping became the head of government. 
  •  As geopolitical tensions intensify, China could be easily misunderstood or become a scapegoat for inciting hostility.  
  • Field research in China has become more dangerous and expensive. Furthermore, the quality of information is also declining due to limitations on free speech. High-ranking officials could also be purged for castigating policy decisions or other top decision-makers, making them reluctant to share their opinions. 
  • The government also censored economic data indicators incompatible with the official narrative. 
  • China's new national security law also instills fear among Chinese researchers and causes suspicion among themselves or other peers. 
  • Chinese policymakers boast beautiful economic figures to capture policy and political successes but often ignore other worrying problems that Xi has to resolve using radical means. However, Xi's iron grip results in less foreign investment and interpersonal exchanges with other countries, making it more difficult for foreigners to understand China. 
  • It is essential to understand China due to its importance on the global stage. Although the information may be incomplete, restricted, or contradictory, other methods of studying China are available. 
  1. Policy documents, speeches, and other official information from the Beijing government and CCP are readily available, but researchers should not overinterpret their context without understanding the rhetorics and history. 
  2. The central government, the National Bureau of Statistics, other ministries, local governments, and data companies also publish statistics on China. However, the government may falsify some numbers.
  3. The Chinese markets, company documents, and the media could also be credible sources. Although the government or party suppresses some topics, there are always hints of issues censored. 
  4. Satellite imagery and social media posts could expose what was happening inside China. 
 
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