作者/Author(s): Keith Johnson 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 10/21/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 金磚國家、經濟、國際秩序


摘要：
金磚國家（BRICS）原本是對巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非等新興經濟體的分類，如今逐漸成為一個多極組織，可能會顛覆西方國際秩序，削弱美元主導地位。 
  • 金磚國家組織與西方多邊機構不同，其由不同意識形態、治理方式、國家利益，甚至受美國制裁的國家政府組成。 
  • 2015 年，金磚國家成員成立了新開發銀行（NDB），旨在成為世界銀行的替代機構，金磚國家開始看起來像是代表另種世界秩序。新開發銀行原意是想提供非美元貸款，但至今還未取得成功，且因美國制裁不得不暫停其在俄羅斯的業務。 
  • 金磚國家成員透過中層會談建立了更緊密的關係，在貿易與投資、外交、法律、金融及其他領域積極合作。
  • 大部分金磚國家成員只是想透過這種做法，表達他們對西方偽善、霸權和漠視發展中國家的不滿情緒。金磚國家成員目標是建立更具包容性的國際秩序，尊重政治和金融主權。在某種意義上，他們主張將主權作為組織原則，對比美國主導的全球秩序，金磚國家組織更具西發里亞條約色彩。
  • 有些國家成員認為全球西方秩序將面臨崩潰，所以選擇加入金磚國家組織，作為後美國秩序的另一重保障。然而，有些國家加入金磚國家組織只是為了展現其不結盟的外交政策原則，或是透過集團宣揚反西方的情緒，金磚國家組織內部意見持續分化。
  • 去美元化也是金磚國家組織內部的重要話題。雖然削弱美元主導地位是中國的遠大目標，但美元依然主導全球經濟。更現實的作法是讓金磚國家成員經濟免受制裁，減少過度依賴美元而帶來的風險。
 
Summary: 
BRICS, originally a classification for emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, increasingly became a multipolar grouping that could upend the Western international order and undermine the US dollar dominance.  
  • Unlike Western multilateral institutions, BRICS comprises governments with various ideologies, governance styles, national interests, and even US-sanctioned countries. 
  • BRICS started to look like an alternate world order in 2015 when the members established a New Development Bank (NDB) as an alternative to the World Bank. The NDB aimed to provide non-dollar loans but has yet to succeed and had to pause its operations in Russia due to US sanctions.
  • BRICS members forged closer relations through mid-level talks to enhance trade and investment relations, diplomacy, law, finance, and other sectors.
  • Most BRICS members only want to signal their displeasure on the West's hypocrisy, hegemony, and inattention to developing countries. They aim to create an all-inclusive international order that respects political and financial sovereignty. In a sense, BRICS' assertion of sovereignty as an organizing principle is more Westphalian than the US-led global order. 
  • Some members foresee the imminent collapse of the Western order and join BRICS as an insurance in the post-American order. Yet, some countries joined BRICS only to show their non-aligned foreign policy principle or advance their anti-Western sentiments through the bloc, dividing the group. 
  • De-dollarization also became a key theme within BRICS. Although dethroning the US dollar's dominance is an ambition for China, the US dollar remains paramount. A more realistic aim is to sanction-proof the economies of BRICS members and mitigate the risks from reliance on the US dollar. 
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