作者/Author(s): Derek Grossman 

網站來源/Source: RAND Corporation 

日期/Date: 09/03/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、泰國灣、美中競逐

摘要：

台海和南海是美中地緣政治緊張局勢的熱點，但隨著北京在東南亞的影響力持續擴大，泰國灣可能將成為下一個焦點。 

  • 中國資助柬埔寨的德崇扶南運河項目，可直接連接金邊和泰國灣，減少從越南轉運的需求，促進柬埔寨經濟成長。 
  • 雖然德崇扶南運河面臨許多困難，但中國在建成的運河中能獲益不少，中國的商業和軍艦可以直接駛過德崇扶南運河，將海上力量投射到該地區。 
  • 中國增加在東南亞河流周圍的存在有幾個目標：  
  1. 避免「麻六甲困局」，並阻礙美國進入麻六甲海峽。 
  2. 更快速地進入泰國灣，並在當地部署中國軍隊。 
  3. 在越南西側建立存在感，降低金蘭灣海軍激地的重要性，讓越南的軍事資源分配變得更複雜。
  • 中國已經實現了部分目標，例如將海軍部隊部署到柬埔寨的雲壤海軍基地。有趣的是，兩國政府都否認有不當行為。
  • 美國應該更關注中國在東南亞參與的德崇扶南運河和其他基礎設施項目，這些項目有可能帶著中國軍隊，讓北京打破美國的包圍網，降低美國在當地的地緣戰略地位。 
  • 比起將泰國灣軍事化，美國應加強與區域各國的接觸，削弱中國日益成長的軍事影響力。
Summary: 
The Taiwan Strait and South China Sea are hotspots for the US-China geopolitical tensions, but the Gulf of Thailand may soon be the next after Beijing expands its presence in the area. 
  • China funded the Funan-Techo Canal project in Cambodia that links Phnom Penh to the Gulf of Thailand directly, reducing the need for shipping transits from Vietnam and allowing economic growth for Cambodia. 
  • China will benefit from the completion of the canal despite it has yet to address various challenges. China could sail commercial and military ships through the canal to the Gulf of Thailand, allowing Chinese maritime forces to increase their force projection into the region. 
  • China has several objectives in increasing its presence around Southeast Asian rivers:
  1. ​​​​​​​Averting the "Malacca Dilemma" and impeding the US's access to the Straits of Malacca. 
  2. Allow faster access to the Gulf of Thailand and deployment of Chinese forces to the region. 
  3. Establish a presence in Vietnam's western flank, reducing the importance of Cam Ranh Bay naval base and complicating Vietnam's military resources allocations. 
  • China already succeeded in some of its goals. China now deploys its naval forces to Cambodia's Ream Naval Base, although both governments denied any wrongdoings. 
  • The US should be concerned about China's involvement in the Funan-Techo Canal and other infrastructure projects in Southeast Asia because these projects have the potential to house the Chinese military, allow Beijing to break the US encirclement, and reduce the US's geostrategic position in the region. 
  • Rather than militarizing the Gulf of Thailand, the US should increase engagement with regional governments to undermine China's growing military position in the region. 
 
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