作者/Author(s): Jo Inge Bekkevold 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 10/08/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 戰略夥伴關係、中俄 


摘要：
西方國家正在制定戰略，以應對日益穩固的中俄聯盟，中俄夥伴關係自2022年俄烏衝突戰爭開始後不斷升溫。雖然俄羅斯和中國都對這段互賴關係存有不信任和不安全感，但兩國共同面臨被西方國家包圍的窘境。當前的中俄關係比過往任何時刻都穩固，西方國家很難削弱這種夥伴關係。 
  • 中俄軸心現在有了更堅實的地緣政治基礎。兩國面臨美國威脅，同時也都無法威脅到彼此。
  • 中國和俄羅斯在經濟上相輔相成，俄羅斯向中國提供能源，中國則向俄羅斯提供科技產品。兩國也在先進科學領域緊密合作，甚至共同努力規避西方的制裁。
  • 中蘇在冷戰時期面臨意識形態分歧和破裂。然而，現今的中俄領導人更關注西方的意識形態，這些思想可能顛覆他們的治權。 
  • 普丁和習近平自 2012 年以來的雙邊關係日益密切，領導人、政府機構以及民眾之間的交流更加頻繁。 
  • 西方試圖離間中俄關係，但是美國和歐盟無法在不損害自身安全和國家利益的情況下針對俄烏。此外，中俄雙方都沒有放棄夥伴關係，轉向與西方和解的誘因。 
Summary: 
The West is devising strategies to counter a growing Sino-Russian alignment, especially after the beginning of the Russo-Ukraine War in 2022. Although Russia and China may have mutual distrust and discomfort about their interdependence, they share a common problem of being encircled by the West. Current Russia-China relations are healthier than ever, making it difficult for the West to impair their relations. 
  • The Chinese-Russian axis now has a more sturdy geopolitical foundation. Neither government could credibly threaten the other while sharing a common threat from the US encirclement. 
  • China and Russia complement one another in the economy. Russia provides energy to China, while China supplies technological goods to Russia. They also cooperate closely in frontier sciences and are working together to circumvent Western sanctions. 
  • Differences in ideological beliefs fractured Sino-Soviet relations during the Cold War. However, current Chinese and Russian leaders are more concerned about the West's ideas, which may upend their rule. 
  • Putin and Xi have grown closer since 2012, with more frequent exchanges between the leaders, among their government institutions, and the public. 
  • The West will try to drive a wedge between Russia and China. However, the US and European Union could not target either Russia or China without undermining their security or national interests. Further, neither Russia nor China have the incentive to make peace with the West while abandoning their partner.
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