作者/Author(s): Jude Blanchette 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies 

日期/Date: 09/26/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、美國、中國 


摘要：
雖然習近平對中國的未來持樂觀態度，但他在國內外面臨阻礙。未來的美國政府可以根據中國當前情勢來制定外交政策。
  • 中國面臨經濟成長放緩，主因包含人口問題、消費者和企業信心減弱、房地產債務以及地方政府財政不佳。此外，在習近平推行嚴格的「清零政策」和商業規範之後，公眾對習近平的信任程度也逐漸下降。 
  • 雖然習近平在外交政策上取得了成功，但也引起了很大的反彈，尤其是中國與俄羅斯保持密切關係，面臨多個領土爭端，持續軍事擴張。 
  • 除了抑制中國的敵意和技術能力之外，西方也可以立用中國的弱點和困境來制定政策。 
  1. 西方可以吸引那些認為中國環境不利的中國科學人才和企業家。 
  2. 雖然美國存有國家安全和智產權的考量，但仍應該在嚴格審查後，允許中國資金進入美國。 
  3. 美國應把握中國與其他國家，尤其是台灣海峽周邊重要利益方之間惡化的關係，同時也該將台灣納入重要的安全協議和供應鏈安全討論中。
 
​​​​​​​ Summary: 
Although Xi Jinping is optimistic about China's future, he faces domestic and international obstacles. The future US administration could formulate its foreign policy based on the current trajectory of China's situation. 
  • China faces an economic slowdown due to demographic problems, reduced consumer and business confidence, real estate debt problems, and fiscal problems among local governments. Moreover, public confidence in Xi's governance waned after he implemented a strict zero-COVID policy and tough business regulations.
  • Although Xi had foreign policy successes, it garnered substantial backlash too, especially since China maintained close relations with Russia, faced several territorial disputes, and continued military expansion. 
  • Apart from containing China's hostility and technological capabilities, the West could devise policies by leveraging its weaknesses and predicaments. 
  1. The West could attract Chinese research talents and entrepreneurs who perceive an inconducive environment in China.  
  2. Although there are national security and intellectual property theft concerns, the US should allow Chinese investments into the US after a strict screening. 
  3. The US should capitalize on deteriorating relations between China and other countries, especially important stakeholders around the Taiwan Strait. The US should also include Taiwan in important security arrangements and supply chain security discussions. 
 
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