作者/Author(s): Jo Inge Bekkevold 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 09/24/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、中國、強權崛起 


摘要：
習近平不僅沒有保持低調，反而拋棄了前人的做法，優先累積軍事實力和與美國競爭全球領導地位。換句話說，在中國變得繁榮之前，習近平正努力讓中國變得強大。
  • 中國是全球僅次於美國，第二大的軍費支出國，但其國民總所得（ GNI）甚至不到美國的五分之一。習近平可能犯了一個戰略錯誤，他在中國擁有穩定繁榮的經濟之前，就急著與美國競爭全球領導地位。
  • 在國際關係學術研究中，國家財富與軍事擴張之間存在兩難，兩者相輔相成，但也可能互扯後腿。太高的軍事支出可能會拖累經濟成長機會，反之亦然。但這並不是中國目前主要的挑戰。中國最大的問題是貿易開放度降低，與全球經濟的聯繫減少，這削弱了中國長期經濟成長的潛力，並限制了中國成為超級大國的康莊大道 
  • 西方的去風險政策，加上中國自身國內社會經濟的困境，嚴重降低了中國的長期經濟成長，和民眾對習近平經濟領導力的信心。 
  • 中國憑藉龐大的資源，遲早能成為與美國平起平坐的超級大國。然而，習近平應該減少進攻性武器平台的支出，並採取較少對抗性的外交政策，以減輕中國崛起的威脅感。 
​​​​​​​Summary: 
Instead of keeping a low profile, Xi abandoned his predecessor's approach and prioritized accumulating military strength and competing with the US for global leadership. In short, Xi turned China powerful before it became prosperous. 
  • China is the largest military spender after the US, but its GNI is less than one-fifth of the US. Xi may have made a strategic blunder by pitting China against the US to compete for global leadership before it had a stable and prosperous economy. 
  • There is a dilemma between wealth accumulation and military expansion within the IR scholarship. Both are mutually reinforcing, but they could undermine each other. Spending too much on the military may reduce economic growth prospects and vice versa, but it is not the main concern for China. A bigger problem with China is the reduced trade openness and ties with the global economy, undermining China's long-term economic growth and restricting China's path to a superpower. 
  • The West's derisking policies, coupled with China's own domestic socioeconomic predicaments, further reduce China's long-term economic growth and confidence in Xi's economic leadership. 
  • China could become a superpower on par with the US sooner or later due to its vast resources. However, Xi should spend less on offensive weapons platforms and pursue less confrontational foreign policies to alleviate the threat perception on China's rise. 
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