作者/Author(s): Jessica Chen Weiss
網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs
日期/Date: 09/16/2024
關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、美中、戰略競爭
摘要：
整合的好處
- 美中必須確立自身期望的結果，以避免關係惡化或不小心制定會損害對方利益的政策。在兩國都無法主導所有領域或技術的情況下，美中應該將重點放在提高韌性和嚇阻，而不是一味追求霸權，這樣才能有效穩定雙邊關係。
- 技術發展是不可預測的，因此，中美兩國應保持一定程度的整合，以便彼此學習和借鑒對方的創新。把技術貼上標籤，視其為意識形態影響工具的做法，不僅沒有依據，甚至會損害到美國的利益。
- 雖然推動供應鏈多元是非常有益的做法，但是美國應該在脫鉤和降低風險的過程中設置一個界線，避免脫鉤過程引起嚴重的通貨膨脹。而且，讓中國融入全球經濟可以阻止其侵略行為。美國對中國的技術限制可能會阻礙民主國家的創新能力，同時迫使中國企業更多地依賴中央政府和本土企業夥伴，這與美國出口管制的初衷相悖。
- 雖然技術限制可以保護關鍵領域，但也可能會妨礙技術進步。因此，美國應該徵求科學界的意見，制定適當且靈活的技術政策。
尋求平衡
- 結構性力量影響了當前的美中戰略競爭，但這並不是不可改變的，雙方的政策選擇隨時可能改變局勢。
- 雖然中國的某些野心抱負與美國或全球利益有所衝突，但中國也會面臨國內問題與外部威脅，所以美國不應將北京政府視為僵化且極端主義的政體。
- 美國不僅應加強嚇阻，也應提供保證，與中國達成妥協，避免中國將美國視為生存威脅。
- 與此同時，美國應加快其創新能力，吸引包括中國在內的全球人才，為美國科學界做出貢獻。然而，美國也必須制定政策，防止戰略創新落入敵對勢力手中。
Summary:
The Benefits of Integration
- The US and China must identify their desired outcomes to stop the downward spiral and avoid policies that undermine other's interests. They should focus on resilience and deterrence instead of hegemony to stabilize their relations, especially when neither dominates every sector or technology.
- Technology development is unpredictable. Therefore, China and the US must retain a degree of integration to identify and learn from each other's innovations. Branding technology as a disguise for ideological influence is ungrounded and counterproductive to US interests.
- Supply chain diversification is beneficial, but the US must determine a limit on decoupling and de-risking because it will cause inflation. Keeping China integrated into the global economy could deter its aggressive behavior. The US technology restrictions on China could impede the innovative capabilities of democracies while encouraging Chinese firms to rely heavily on their central government and local partners, which are against the initial aims of the US export controls.
- Although technological limitations could protect strategic sectors, they could hinder technological progress. Therefore, the US should collect opinions from businesses and the scientific community to calibrate suitable and flexible technology policies.
Striking a Balance
- Structural forces influence the current US-China strategic rivalry, but it is not definitive and their policy choices could change the balance at any time.
- Although some of China's ambitions contradict the US or the world, the US should not perceive the Beijing government as a rigid and maximalist regime, especially when China has its domestic problems and external threats.
- The US not only should improve deterrence but also assurances to get a compromise with China and prevent China from perceiving the US as an existential threat.
- At the same time, the US should accelerate its innovation capabilities by soliciting global talents, even from China, to contribute to the US scientific community. However, the US must also devise policies to protect strategic innovations from falling into the hands of its enemies.